Double Dutch, 13th October 2013
We secured back to back doubles yesterday, but as it was the two most favoured runners that secured victories, the resultant 5.50 odds only served to trim 0.75pts off the deficit.
Two positives emerged from the day though, the 0.75pts reduced our arrears by 11.85% in real terms and using BOG bookies enabled us to get paid out at 9/2 about an SP double that paid under 9/4.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
War Command: won at 6/5 (SP 10/11!)
Outstrip: 3rd at 15/8
Shyron: won at 6/4 (SP 4/6!)
Sweet Amaalie: unplaced
Trial to date:
39 winning selections from 137 = 28.47%
11 winning doubles in 38 days = 28.95%
P/L : -5.58pts (-7.49% ROI)
It was another small step in the right direction yesterday as we aim to achieve profitability via these races today…
If Sivola De Sivola runs to his abilities after a 4 month break then he should be head and shoulders above this small field. He was a very useful hurdler, running in group races last year (competed at Gp1 and was placed in a Gp3), before switching to chasing where he was 2nd at Perth on his first attempt, before winning at the second time of asking at Aintree last time out in June.
Despite conceding weight (but not too much) all round, the current 5/4 generally on offer might look massive come post time.
Well Hello There is the one I find interesting of the others, he’s currently priced at 3/1 with bet365 and I think he’ll go well today, despite a 9lb rise in the weights for winning over course and distance here last time out. He stayed on well that day and the runners behind him have notched up some good performances since.
Bombadero was pipped at the post over today’s trip on Thursday at Worcester, but is turned out again quickly off a 1lb lower mark which could and should be enough to make all the difference if he comes here in the same mood that almost got him home last time. The 7/4 on offer from BetVictor looks more than fair, especially when you consider the lack of quality in the race.
To look for a backup plan involves looking at a couple who aren’t quite so straightforward. Top weights Toubab and Lordofthehouse are the most likely to challenge of the remainder, but Toubab has been very costly to follow over larger obstacles and is best left alone on his return to hurdling for the first time in 32 months (14 races).
This leaves us with the temperamental Lordofthehouse, who goes well when he’s in the mood as wins at both Wetherby and Kempton will testify. He does, however, refuse to run at all on occasions (twice around this time last year) and sometimes runs but doesn’t co-operate, as was the case when he was pulled up at Enghien last time out. A recent form line of RR1461P highlights the good and bad to this one, but on his day could well go on to win at 7/2 (William Hill)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Sivola De Sivola / Bombadero @ 6.19 with BetVictor
Sivola De Sivola / Lordofthehouse @ 10.13 with BetVictor
Well Hello There / Bombadero @ 10.48 with Bet365
Well Hello There / Lordofthehouse @ 17.32 with Bet365