Stat of the Day, 14th October 2013
No action yesterday as Danjeu was withdrawn around lunch-time, meaning we kept our powder dry for today’s selection, who runs in a 7f Fillies Maiden on soft ground in the…
A trio of well-known phrases come together to provide the backbone of today’s post. When you hear people mention Richard Hannon, Richard Hughes and the words two-year old in the same sentence, there’s often a decent result at the end of it and they combine today with Aertex.
Aertex is making only her second start today after showing glimpses of promise on her debut almost three weeks ago at Goodwood. She finished 8th of 15 at 33/1 that day and although she was 10 lengths off the winner, she wasn’t disgraced by any means.
The winner had made all that day and scooted well clear of the pack and Aertex was only 5 lengths adrift of 2nd place, which represents a decent enough debut. She was almost a length ahead of Best Kept, who won (last Wednesday) next time out at 25/1!
Richard Hannon’s 2 yr olds invariably improve second time out and over the last two seasons he has had 56 winners from the 151 horses having their second run. This 37.1 % strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 89.54pts, a return over stakes of 59.3%. When Richard Hughes has been the jockey, the figures read as 27 winners from 51 (52.94%) for 29.22pts (+57.3% ROI) profit.
Richard Hughes also has an excellent general record on 2 yr olds over shorter trips of 6 to 7 furlongs, since the start of the 2011 season his record is 127 winners from 497 races, a 25.6% strike rate yielding 71.15pts, a return of 14.32% of stakes. These figures are improving by taking out the shorter and longer priced runners, which we tend to shy away from on SotD anyway.
Applying a simple 5/2 to 12/1 odds filter to those 497 runners gives us 62 winners from 306. This 20.26% strike rate achieving level stakes profits of 83.03pts or 27.13% of stakes. Of those 306 runners, the record on soft ground is 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 25.94pts (+99.8% ROI) profits.
A quick look at the markets shows Aertex generally available at around the 7/1 mark and my play today is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Aertex at 15/2 BOG with Paddy Power. Prices are subject to sudden changes, of course, so please…
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