Double Dutch, 15th October 2013
Close, but not close enough yesterday, as our 3-day winning streak came to an end. The half-length defeat of Silly Billy was the margin between success and failure for us yesterday, as Goal won well later in Limerick at the charity meeting.
Incidentally, Silly Billy was beaten by Camerooney, the 8/1 selection from Matt’s Shortlist feature, so Geegeez is claiming a moral victory of sorts! 😀
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Silly Billy: 2nd at 3/1
Elspeth’s Boy: Unplaced
Goal: won at 11/4 (SP 2/1)
Trial to date:
42 winning selections from 145 = 28.97%
12 winning doubles in 40 days = 30.00%
P/L : -6.49pts (-8.27% ROI)
I’m looking for a quick return to winning ways with these…
This sees the debut of Prudent Approach, sister of New Approach and one who cost 775,000 Euros as a yearling. Her pedigree/breeding is unquestionable and it’s only really a matter of whether or not she can win first time out. If taking to it straight away, the 9/4 on offer from SportingBet looks very generous.
If she isn’t able to deliver on debut, then I’d expect it to be Sparrow who beats her. Sparrow had a very modest debut herself when only beating one home over a mile here in early September. She returned here for a 2nd crack and was runner-up in a 7f 18-horse race four weeks later. The Ballydoyle filly seems to be coming along nicely and a further drop back in trip to today’s 6 furlongs could prove to be the ticket to a win at 6/4 (William Hill)
Charlie Longsdon’s horses are flying at present and I’d expect Loudmouth to continue that fine run of form here. He’ll get the softness of the ground and looks very well treated on his handicap bow, after winning one and placing in one of three hurdles runs off the back of a successful stint in Irish point races. SportingBet offer 7/4 here and that’s quite reasonable about this one’s chances.
Bucking The Trend was a decent hurdler last season (2 wins from 5) and is a full brother to Ballyoliver, who himself is an excellent chaser. Bucking The Trend has run well on ground with some cut in and shouldn’t be troubled by today’s conditions, nor will he want for stamina. He’s bred to stay and has already stayed over 3 miles and has a win to his name at 2m 6.5f. SportingBet go 4/1 about this one.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Sparrow / Loudmouth @ 6.25 with William Hill (but SportingBet are at 6.55 non-BOG)
Sparrow / Bucking The Trend @ 11.25 with Ladbrokes (but 11.90 with SportingBet)
Prudent Approach / Loudmouth @ 6.88 with Bet365 (but 8.94 with SportingBet)
Prudent Approach / Bucking The Trend @ 12.38 generally (but 16.25 with SportingBet)