Stat of the Day, 15th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th October 2013

It was another profitable day for those followers of the Hannon/Hughes partnership yesterday. Winners at 7/2 and Evens from a set of results reading 14713 meant a 30% return on stakes. Unfortunately for us here at SotD, Aertex ran 4th.

The East Midlands is our next port of call as we tackle a competitive-looking…

5.45 Leicester

Where I’ve just taken 6/1 E/W BOG about the progressive Markttag. This is a 16-runner race, so as things stand, you’ll get paid out for a top 4 finish this evening.

The pertinent facts here are that Markttag drops from Class 3 to Class 5 to compete here, will be fancied in the market and is trained by the excellent Luca Cumani who has notably enlisted the services of Ryan Moore for this one. So, let’s take a closer look.

The easiest to deal with is the fact that Markttag is currently joint favourite for this race and is likely to be sent off at a lower price than his current 6/1. Over the last two years, the top two in the market have won 21.54% (56 from 260) of Leicester handicaps when priced in the 5/2 to 6/1 category we should be playing in today.

The profits from those races aren’t earth-shattering, but do provide a useful starting point. The level stakes profits of 29.41pts are the equivalent of an 11.31% return on all stakes. Favourites and joint/co favourites have won 69 from 183 Leicester handicaps for a strike rate of 37.7% and profits of 65.86pts (+35.99% ROI), so keeping the fav suffix won’t cause me any concern here.

Now, let’s look at the Class of race here, Markttag has come down from 3 to 5 today and Luca Cumani has an excellent record with horses dropping in grade. In the last three years he has dropped 108 horses priced at 12/1 or under by 3 grades or less, producing 35 winners (32.41% SR) and 57.26pts (+53.02% ROI) level stakes profits. The figures for the runners sent off between Evens & 6/1 read 25/76 (32.9% SR) for 31.2pts (+41% ROI), so even the lowered odds are consistently profitable.

With a career form line of 765332, Markttag is proving to be consistent and progressive and it is hoped that bringing one of the big guns (Ryan Moore) to ride today will be the extra push required to secure that elusive first win, after coming close 12 days ago ridden by Luke Morris.

It was Matt Bisogno himself who pointed out to me that Luca Cumani had an excellent record when booking one of the big three (Messrs Fallon, Hughes & Moore) to ride a horse they didn’t ride for him last time out. Since 2010, the record of such runners is 55 winners from 150 races (36.67% strike rate) producing level stakes profits of 78pts or 52% of all stakes.

As I said at the top of the piece, I’m on Markttag with a 0.5pts safety-first E/W bet at 6/1 BOG. I ‘ve taken that price from Coral, but Stan james are also currently at 6’s. I’d expect this one to contract during the day, so the advice is to…

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