Double Dutch, 16th October 2013
Tuesday followed Monday’s pattern of a winner and a runner-up, after Sparrow won the opener at tight odds of just 4/9, heavily backed in from our advised 6/4.
This gave us a shot at race 2 which featured Loudmouth from the in-form Charlie Longsdon stable, but he was headed on the run-in and suffered a one length defeat to deprive us of an 11/2 double.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Sparrow: won at 6/4 (SP was 4/9!)
Prudent Approach: Unplaced
Loudmouth: 2nd at 7/4 (SP 5/4)
Bucking The Trend: Unplaced
Trial to date:
43 winning selections from 149 = 28.86%
12 winning doubles in 41 days = 29.27%
P/L : -8.49pts (-10.55% ROI)
The numbers are going the wrong way again, so I hope to arrest the slide starting in the…
The withdrawal of Godolphin’s Hawker from this average-looking race has left it as pretty much a two-horse contest. Proximate comes here with the best form, having shown improvement in each of his three runs to date, finishing 332 in the process. He travelled really well last time out before being bumped badly and losing some momentum. He regained his composure and challenged again, going down by just a short head. He looked like he wanted further that day and the extra furlong should help him here, where he’s currently best priced at 5/4 generally.
Thorpe is an interesting challenger here and is better than some of his form would suggest. he has struggled over the longer trips he’s been tried at, but has finished 223 over 1m4f and the drop back in trip could be just the thing today. He looks reasonably well priced at 100/30 with Betfred.
Wild Card won on his first attempt over hurdles back in April after three respectable efforts in bumpers. He had to dig deep for that win at Towcester over a trip (2m) that seemed too sharp for him and he’s expected to cope better with today’s extra half-mile. He has moved to the McCain yard during his 6-months lay off and no disrespect to his former trainer, but I’d expect him to improve for the switch.
He was a neck in front of Twelve Roses last time out and a further 6 lengths clear of Staigue Fort and both of these have gone on to win in Wild Card’s absence. I’d expect him to further frank that form with a win here today at odds of 2/1 (SportingBet)
Three Kingdoms won’t lack for speed between the obstacles, having won over 1m4f on heavy ground on the flat before his switch to hurdles this year, where he was 2nd and 3rd on his first two attempts. He was then considered good enough to be sent to compete in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham in March and although well beaten (17th of 24) he wasn’t disgraced and has to be respected here at odds of 100/30 (Betfred) on his return to action.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Proximate/ Wild Card @ 6.48 with Stan James and Betfred (but SportingBet are at 6.75 non-BOG)
Proximate / Three Kingdoms @ 9.74 with Betfred
Thorpe / Wild Card @ 12.47 with Betfred (but 12.99 with SportingBet)
Thorpe / Three Kingdoms @ 18.78 with Betfred