Stat of the Day, 16th October 2013
Markttag failed to see out the full 10f yesterday and despite leading approaching the final furlong, was soon headed and weakened noticeably, eventually finishing back in 6th as the 4/1 jt favourite, well backed from our advised 6/1.
He finished a good 15 lengths behind the winner and 4 lengths away from getting us an E/W payout.
We’ve got a 10-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase to consider today as we tackle the…
Despite a slow start to this winter campaign (no winners from five) Sue Smith generally comes to the fore at this time of year. Disregarding the longshots, her record in the month of October is usually very good. Since 2010 and applying a maximum odds cap of 12/1, she has saddled up 14 winners from 63, a strike rate of 22.22% generating level stakes profits 30.8pts which equates to a 48.9% return on stakes invested.
With a 6/1 odds cap, the figures are 10/28 (35.7% SR) for 14.66pts (+52.4% ROI) profit, whilst a cap of 4/1 yields 9 winners from 16 (56.25% SR) and profits of 20.27pts or 126.7% of stakes.
Sue has three runners here today and whilst I wouldn’t completely disregard the E/W chances of either Coverholder (at 11/1 in the 3.25 race) or No Planning (at 9/1 in the 3.55 race), my selection today is the 7/2 shot Stagecoach Pearl, who will be ridden by Jonathan England (who will also ride Coverholder).
Jonathan has had an excellent year aboard Sue Smith’s horses, winning on seven of their twenty-nine outings together with that 24.1% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 15.75pts or 54.3% of stakes. As above, he has also done better on the more favoured horses and has a 6/17 (35.3% SR) record on those priced at 6/1 or under, returning at 10.53pts (+61.9% ROI) profit.
And with those (as today) priced at 4/1 or under, that record becomes 5 from 9 (55.56%SR) for 10.94pts (+151.6% ROI) profit. Not bad work if you can get it.
Stagecoach Pearl is no mug either and although he hasn’t quite hit the heights of his excellent 2012 campaign, there’s no doubt that he’s got talent: 8 wins and 6 places from 29 runs is testament to that and it’s less than a year ago that he was finishing third in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree against some decent horses, including Wishfull Thinking who was second that day.
He comes here well rested from a six months break and although he’s top weighted here, Jonathan England’s 5lb claim will be very useful/helpful on his return to the track and when you consider he was running off a mark of 150 a year ago and off 145 at Cheltenham in March, this race represents a massive drop in class/ability for him as he comes here to run off 135 (effectively 130 with the jockey claim), despite his last victory coming off 146 for which he received a further 6lb hike.
He’s basically very well treated at the weights if showing anything like his form of last year and to date he has 10 top-three finishes from 13 runs at today’s trip, winning on four occasions with two wins and a place from four runs on good ground over this 2m trip.
I’ve taken 7/2 BOG about Stagecoach Pearl with Bet365, but William Hill and Paddy Power are both at the same price, so I’d suggest that you…
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