Stat of the Day, 17th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2013

Stagecoach Pearl had to settle for the bridesmaid role at the end of an exciting contest at Wetherby. He lost the lead at the last and was battling with Temple Lord for the victory when both were passed in a flying finish from Lucky Landing who swept by to score by just over two lengths.

We got close with our 7/2 shot (SP 100/30), but not close enough and I’m hoping for a good run in the…

7.50 Kempton

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Where I’m on the interesting handicap debutant Duchess of Seville. I’ve already placed a 0.5pts E/W bet on her at 8/1 BOG with Paddy Power and I shall now attempt to explain why.

Firstly, she is trained by Marco Botti, whose horses are in fantastic form at present with seven winners and three placed from 14 runners in the last week, including a 7/2 winner on Wednesday’s card here.

Marco has a good recent record here at Kempton in handicap contests, especially with horses in the 7/4 to 8/1 region. Over the 2011/13 period 16 of 61 such runners have proved victorious, giving a strike rate of 26.23% for this timeframe and excellent profits of some 22.9pts, or 375.% of stakes invested. As I’m taking the E/W option with this selection, it’s also interesting to note that 32 of the 61 runners have been placed (52.46%).

Signor Botti also has a very good record when giving horses their handicap debut on an all-weather surface and when those runners have been sent off at odds of 12/1 or under during the above 2011/13 timeframe, there has been 16 winners from 60 (26.67%SR) for level stakes profits of 18.95pts (+31.6% ROI) with 32 of them (53.33%) also making the frame.

If we were to disregard the shorter-priced runners (ie below 7/4) that wouldn’t interest us from a SotD point of view, then the figures become 13 winners from 53 (24.53%) for profits of 20.43pts or 38.55% of stakes, with the small drop in strike rate being more than compensated for by the increased ratio of profit. Incidentally the place strike rate was still very good here with 29 of the 53 making the frame.

Duchess of Seville comes here for her handicap debut and looks relatively lightly treated off a mark of 82, when you consider how she ran in her three maiden contests at Wolverhampton. She was placed third in each of her first two starts after running quite green, but still having the raw ability to get involved late on. Martin Harley took the ride last time out (he’s back in the saddle again for this ride) and he handled her brilliantly, steering her to a comfortable 8 length victory and in truth she could have won by much more.

She’s by far the least exposed of this field and any doubts about her stepping up to run a couple of extra furlongs are offset by the way she eased home last time out, plus her breeding does tend to suggest that she’ll eventually get even further than this 11 furlong trip.

I’d expect some money to come for Duchess of Seville, that’s why I’ve taken the early 8/1 E/W BOG from Paddy Power, but if you prefer to wait, you can always…

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