Double Dutch, 19th October 2013
It was close, but no cigar time yesterday as we came within a neck of recording a 4.95/1 double, as that was the margin of Great Minds’ defeat after Musical Comedy had taken the opener at advised odds of 6/4. But such are the fine margins in this great sport!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Musical Comedy: won at 6/4 (SP 5/4)
Red Stargazer: 3rd of 3!
Great Minds: 2nd at 11/8 (SP Evens)
Dutiful Son: 5th
Trial to date:
48 winning selections from 161 = 29.81%
14 winning doubles in 44 days = 31.82%
P/L : -0.60pts (-0.69% ROI)
This means we’ve just slipped back into the red and today looks tricky, but I’m hopeful of grabbing a couple of winners from the following…
I just can’t seen Brendan Brackan getting beat here and even though he’s only best priced at 13/8 with Stan James, he still looks a fairly safe bet today. This race doesn’t look to be very strong, considering it’s a listed event. This horse carries a 5lb penalty for winning a Grade 3 race at the Curragh last time out, but he’s officially rated 12lbs clear of his nearest rivals and is the form pick here.
Of the rest, I suppose the best chance lies with Rich Coast, who at least also comes here on the back of a win last time out. That came on heavy ground at Listowel, so he’ll appreciate some cut in the ground and the forecasted rain will play to his strengths. If the ground does get softer, he could well make a mockery of the 9/2 odds on offer from Boylesports on a track where he has already won on soft ground.
This race should revolve around the current 2/1 joint favourites. Balder Succes made a great start to his chasing career when landing a Class 2 contest at Chepstow last Saturday. A drop back in trip shouldn’t inconvenience him too much, as he has decent ground speed from having run on the flat over the summer.
The fact that he has to concede some weight, though, might just let chasing debutant Dark Lover in to snatch this one on a track where has had two wins and a second place from four previous attempts (although not over larger obstacles). Of all these here today, he was the top rated over hurdles and he’s getting weight from all the other main players here. He does tend to go well fresh and could catch the others cold today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Brendan Brackan / Dark Lover @ 7.86 with BetVictor
Brendan Brackan / Balder Succes @ 7.86 with BetVictor
Rich Coast / Dark Lover @ 15.84 with Boylesports
Rich Coast / Balder Succes @ 15.84 with Boylesports