Stat of the Day, 19th October 2013
I suggested that Fun Mac would have no problems seeing out 10 furlongs yesterday and I thought he’d be one for further in time.
It was just as well, as the race was actually a shade over 10.5f, having been run on the outer course at Haydock and Fun Mac wandered about that much, he probably ran eleven and a half!
As it was, he ended up under the stands rail all alone and swept home to score by the best part of three lengths, giving us a nice 4pt profit on a horse that was sent off at 100/30.
From one extreme to the other today, after taking the first on yesterday’s Haydock card, we’re now aiming at the last one of the day in the…
Where the call is a 9/1 E/W BOG bet on Icy Blue who will be ridden by George Chaloner (claiming 5lbs) for Richard Whitaker.
Icy Blue is another of those horses being turned out quickly after a sudden return to form. In other words, these are horses running on the All-Weather within 30 days of a win last time out, when that win came after a string of three or more unplaced efforts..
Basically, it’s a case of trainers trying to strike whilst the iron is still hot. Icy Blue won back to back races within 9 days in August 2011 and then failed to score again until his last run 12 days ago, when he won here at Wolverhampton over this same trip and I’m hoping history repeats itself and he does the double again. he actually went 23 races without a win and qualifies for this micro-system via a run of 7 unplaced efforts before winning last time out in a sequence reading 258445451.
Horses fitting this pattern have won 54 of 175 races this year: a strike rate of 30.9% generating level stakes profits of 64.5pts which is equivalent to almost 37% of stakes invested, a decent return and the place strike rate is over 55%.
George Chaloner takes the ride (and 5lbs off) today and he has a good record when riding for Richard Whitaker. Together they have teamed up on 22 horses that have all been sent off at odds of 14/1 or under and 12 of those horses have made the frame: a near 55% place strike rate that has produced 46.5pts (+105.7% ROI) profits for E/W backers, whilst the braver win only punters have been rewarded with 6 wins from 22 (27.3% SR) for 29pts (+131.9% ROI) profit.
Icy Blue is admittedly a temperamental sort and is often one to be trusted, but he has shown in the past that he can follow up a good run with another shortly after and he still looks quite favourably treated at the weights. This doesn’t look to be a great race and there’s no reason why he cant’ at least grab a place, hence the E/W approach today.
I’ve placed a 0.5pts E/W bet on Icy Blue at 9/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but Bet365 and Stan James are also matching this price , so I’d suggest that you…
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