Double Dutch, 20th October 2013
We got back on the winning trail yesterday with our sixth success in nine days as Rich Coast’s win after drifting out to an SP of 5/1 was backed up by Dark Lover’s victory at Cheltenham to give us a 17/1 double on the day.
Meanwhile, those of you doing the forecast/exactas were rewarded with a 10.2/1 payout in that first race and we would probably have landed the second race too, had Balder Succes not fallen when a good 4 lengths clear just 2 fences from home.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Rich Coast: won at 5/1
Brendan Brackan: 2nd at 13/8 (SP 6/5)
(The Exacta paid £11.20 to a £1 stake here)
Dark Lover: won at 2/1 (SP 7/4)
Balder Succes: fell
Trial to date:
50 winning selections from 163 = 29.81%
15 winning doubles in 45 days = 33.33%
P/L : +6.4pts (+7.23% ROI)
We’ve finally got ourselves a bit of daylight/breathing space, but there’s no let up as we aim to continue the good run with these…
Seskinane to taken to continue his progression over hurdles here today. He finished 2nd of 25 on his first attempt at Fairyhouse in April over two miles, before beating all fifteen rivals home to land a maiden at Kilbeggan over 2m 3.5f on soft ground seventeen days later. He was then first past the post at Sligo over 2.5 miles on heavy ground ahead of Willie Mullins’ top-class On His Own, but was subsequently disqualified due to the actions of his jockey.
He steps up further in trip today to tackle 3 miles, but as he’s a former point to point winner at this trip, there should be no stamina issues and his run last time out (disregarding the DQ of course!) puts him well above this field. I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t win this and I’d expect him to go off shorter than the current 6/4 on offer from Boylesports and Stan James.
The most likely challenger should be Some Officer, a 4/1 shot with Paddy Power and Stan James. He’s both consistent and progressive and looks like he’ll also relish this step up in trip. Finishes of 321314 in his last six outings in increasingly difficult contests will stand him in good stead here and the odds on offer make him an attractive backup plan.
Cap Elorn comes here chasing a five-timer and it’s hard to oppose him after his four victories over this trip in the last three months. Gavin Sheehan was in the saddle for the first three of this 4-win sequence and the pair are reunited today, where Gavin’s 3lb claim will come in useful to at least offset some of Cap Elorn’s rising mark. The current best price of 5/2 with both Stan James and BetVictor looks quite generous about a horse in such good form.
Alfraamsey is another likeable sort who always seems to give his all and is very consistent at this level. Five wins and five places from 14 starts under NH rules since his switch from the flat is a sign that you’ll get a run for your money and he comes back chasing here on the back of a decent win over hurdles at Plumpton last time out.
He had a three race spell over the larger obstacles last Autumn, finishing second on two occasions before winning at Huntingdon, so he’ll not be fazed by the job in hand and he’s expected to be there or thereabouts and good value for his current odds of 11/2 (Stan James)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles with Stan James as follows:
Seskinane / Cap Elorn @ 8.75
Seskinane / Alfraamsey @ 16.25
Some Officer / Cap Elorn @ 17.50
Some Officer / Alfraamsey @ 32.50