Stat of the Day, 20th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2013

We got a gutsy run from Icy Blue on Saturday evening, as he defied his 9/1 odds to come within a half-length of victory in a very tight finish. Less than two lengths separated the first five home and we did at least get a consolation prize of 0.4pts profit from our E/W bet.

There’s not a great deal jumping out at me from a stats point of view, but I think I may just have something a little different in the…

2.20 Cork

Where Gordon Elliott sends High Net Worth out for his hurdling debut.

First and foremost, Gordon’s horses are in good nick, with a 23% strike rate over the last couple of months and 50% of those 82 runners have made the frame. This comes as no surprise to me, as Mr Elliott always seems to do well at this time of year with his National Hunt horses.

In fact, the month of October is usually a particularly strong one for him and his team, as he has sent out  25 winners from 111 runners in the last four Octobers (including this one!). That strike rate of 22.52% is excellent, as are the generated level stakes profits of 57.3pts or 51.6% of stakes.

I’m not too concerned that High Net Worth hasn’t run over hurdles in the past, because I’m pretty sure he’ll have been very well schooled and he certainly won’t lack for pace between the obstacles, after having been competing over 7f and a  mile in his last four outings, finishing as runner-up on each occasion. So, although he comes here from another code, he does come in some sort of form.

It should also be added that Gordon Elliott won this race last year with Dumbarton, who came here with a similar profile to High Net Worth as a recruit from flat racing and I do feel that our selection’s “race fitness” will count for plenty today as many of the main contenders at the head of the market will be coming here needing a run.

This is admittedly not the most confident pick I’ve made of late, but if things fall his way, there no reason why High Net Worth can’t win here, so I’m in with a 0.5pt E/W bet at 15/2 BOG with BetVictor, but as always, I highly recommend that you…

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