Stat of the Day, 21st October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2013

Well, we didn’t get to see much of High Net Worth’s hurdling ability yesterday, as his debut in that sphere came to a rather premature and abrupt end.

To date his hurdling career now reads: hurdles attempted 1, falls 1, as he found himself tight for room approaching the first and fell on landing, bringing another unfortunate runner down with him!

At least today’s hurdler has already proven he can jump, as he and we tackle the…

3.20 Plumpton

Where I have selected Ivebeenthinking, who is currently available at 5/1 with both Stan James and BetVictor. This horse comes here on the back of a 5 length win at Uttoxeter last Thursday over the same 2 mile trip as today.

Hurdlers turning out within 5 days of a win last time out have gone on to secure the double on 13 of 40 occasions this year alone: a strike rate of 32.5% and when running in fairly large fields (ie 12 to 16 runners, today’s race has 14) the record is 6 wins from 8 for 6.76pts (+84.5% ROI).

Also, runners here at Plumpton who won last time out within 30 days and are running at a trip within half a furlong (to allow for the vagaries of some tracks’ measurements!) of that win are 13 from 38 (34.2% SR) for 9.64pts (+25.4% ROI) since 2011. The record for those turned out within 10 days is 2 from 3 for 3.14pts profit.

And finally, as Ivebeenthinking won LTO within the last 30 days and that run came after 8 unplaced runs (it was, in fact, his only placed effort to date), he qualifies as one of those horses I back straight after a win, which has done well for me (and SotD!) of late.

Basically, backing NH horses that won LTO within 30 days after a string of 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts is profitable at odds of 6/1 or under. This has already generated 68 winners from 200 this year for me at a strike rate of 34% and the profit levels are currently running at 71.1pts or just over 35.5% ROI.

So, I’ve three (admittedly similar in some respects) sets of data to support Ivebeenthinking today and although he carries a penalty for last week’s win, there’s not much other decent form on show in this race and the manner of his victory last time out suggests the weight shouldn’t be an issue today.

I’m confident enough that he’ll build on last week’s success, so the call is a 1pt win bet on Ivebeenthinking at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor, but I do recommend that you…

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