Double Dutch, 22nd October 2013
Yesterday started well with a 1-2 finish in the opener (yes, I called it the wrong way around, but we got there and it was a 4.3/1 exacta to boot) as Ribbleton edged out Percy’s Gal at shorter odds than I’d recommended.
This set us up nicely for the supposedly easier to call Listed contest an hour later, where once again my second pick finished ahead of my main choice. Unfortunately though, neither myself, the general racing fraternity nor the bookmakers expected Lady Heidi to grab the race by the scruff of the neck in the final furlong and power home at 20/1.
When the 20/1 outsider of five takes a Listed race in that manner, only connections of the horse and the bookies are happy and so by definition, it wasn’t a good thing for us.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Ribbleton: won at 15/8 (SP 7/4)
Percy’s Gal: 2nd at 15/8 (SP 6/4)
(The Exacta paid out at £5.30 to a £1 stake)
Safety Check: 2nd at 9/4 (SP 7/4)
Bow Creek: 4th
Trial to date:
51 winning selections from 169 = 30.18%
15 winning doubles in 47 days = 31.91%
P/L : +2.9pts (+3.15% ROI)
A 3 mile chase and an A/W handicap await us today…
Just three go to post here and I’m happy enough to disregard the outsider Rendl Beach who han’t been seen on a track for 310 days and failed to complete each of his last two races before the long break.
This, by default, leaves us with the one I fancy, Kentford Grey Lady, who represents the in-form Emma Lavelle yard and Sonofvic, who has generally run at a much higher level than this.
Kentford Grey Lady makes her first start over the larger obstacles, but the yard is on fire at present and she has a really good record on Good to Soft ground and stays this 3 miles (and some!): she’s currently available at 5/4 BOG. Sonofvic hasn’t been seen since falling at the last in the 2012 Pertemps at Cheltenham, but if able to fiore first time out after a lengthy (586 days) absence from the track, his class is without question.
Sonofvic got to within to lengths of Grand Crus in the grade 2 Worcester Novices Chase at Newbury almost two years ago and any run resembling half of what he’s capable of could give the favourite something to think about and he’s currently 11/8 with Stan James.
I put Miguel Grau up 11 days ago and he scored for us that day and I expect him to do the same again here at 7/4. He absolutely destroyed the field last time out at Wolverhampton (8.5f) winning by a good 8 lengths going away and I’d expect him to get the extra 1.5f easily today. He’s only had 4 races to date, so he’s still very unexposed and if kept to his work, should take this comfortably.
I suppose the main worry about the selection is the “bounce factor” and if that becomes a factor then the consistent Chrissycross could well be the one to take advantage. At 5/1 generally, she’s not a bad E/W bet on her own, as she comes here in good nick after going down by just a head last time out at Southwell. She has won here in the past and is best suited by today’s 10f trip and has made the frame in all three of her past efforts over C&D and those 5/1 odds offer some real value in my opinion.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Kentford Grey Lady / Miguel Grau @ 6.19 generally, but SportingBet offer 7.31 non-BOG
Kentford Grey Lady / Chrissycross @ 13.50 with William Hill
Sonofvic / Miguel Grau @ 6.55 with Coral
Sonofvic / Chrissycross @ 14.28 with Stan James