Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2013

Ivebeenthinking ran well enough yesterday without winning. The tactics seemed to be to hold him up for a late run and he stayed on well at the finish, coming home in third place, just a length shy of finishing second.

Unfortunately, though, the winner had got first run on the pack and scooted some 15 lengths clear and never looked like getting caught and we had to settle for 3rd place at 5/1 (SP was 4/1, so we at least beat the market)

We turn to a yard and a horse both in form as we tackle the…

4.40 Exeter

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It won’t have escaped your attention that Emma Lavelle has really got her horses flying at the moment. She has saddled four winners from nine runners in the last week alone and backing all her runners in the last four weeks would have been highly profitable.

In fact seven of her eighteen runners (38.9%) have gone on to win in that 4-week time frame with another 4 making the frame. A £10 level stake at betfair SP on each of those runners would have netted you a cool £347 profit, an ROI of some 192.7%., whilst the 61% place strike rate has rewarded E/W backers with just under 43pts profit (+119% ROI).

Emma has two runners here today and both have a decent chance of winning. Kentford Grey Lady runs in the 2.40 race, but only three horses go to post for that one, meaning that the 11/8 price from BetVictor is a little skinny for SotD purposes, which leads us to our pick for today: The Potting Shed.

The Potting Shed comes here after breaking his maiden tag at the fifth time of asking, but it was his first attempt over the larger obstacles. So you could say he was unbeaten as a chaser! :D. He had finished 6th, 8th, 8th and 4th in his four previous starts, all over hurdles, so not only did he get his first win last time out at Worcester, it was the first time he’d made the frame.

He was a convincing winner at Worcester, making all and still having enough in the tank to stay on and pull away in the run-in to the line, scoring by a good six lengths. He has, of course, been raised in the weights for that victory, but the manner in which he jumped at Worcester and subsequently put the race to bed suggests that he’s still pretty well treated here.

Gavin Sheehan was riding him for the first time that day too and he takes the ride again today and I’m sure his 3lb claim will come in very handy today. The way he won last time out allied to the incredible form of his yard would actually be enough for me to put The Potting Shed up as a selection, but as the 80’s (?) Irish comedian Jimmy Cricket used to say, there’s more!

A form line of 68841 makes The Potting Shed another of what I call the “Back To Form” horses, ie those winning after a string of unplaced runs who are then turned out at 6/1 or under within 30 days. Such NH horses are 68/201 (33.83% SR) for 70.1pts (+34.9% ROI) this year, despite Ivebeenthinking’s defeat yesterday.

All of which leads me to a 1pt win bet on The Potting Shed at 3/1 BOG and this price is fairly widely available. I’ve gone with BetVictor, but if you’d rather use someone else, you can see their current prices when you…

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