Breeders Cup Juvenile Trends
Usually a full field of fourteen lines up for this mile and half a furlong dirt contest, but the no Lasix rule thinned the entry down to just nine starters last year, and it looks likely to be under-subscribed again this year.
Shanghai Bobby last year was the first New Yorker to win at Santa Anita in the six years the race has been held there. And he was entitled to do that as the 13/10 favourite. Still, he didn’t have it all his own way and had to battle hard for victory from He’s Had Enough, who had to sit and suffer around the home turn before finishing too late. It may well be worth siding with the home (i.e. West Coast) team again in 2013.
Sixteen of the last twenty Juvenile winners finished first or second last time out, with the vast majority of those (thirteen) winning. Those last time out winners included the 26/1 bomb, Action This Day, so take a look at ALL last time out winners.
The average number of starts in the last ten years is 3.8, with UK raider Wilko skewing that somewhat, as he’d already had nine runs before disembarking the plane!
Key Prep Races for the Breeders Cup Juvenile
Although there is a series of Win And You’re In races, there isn’t a clear pattern in terms of which is/are the key prep race or races. Although Shanghai Bobby exited the Champagne Stakes, a recognised WAYI contest, in recent years winners have come from Maiden Special Weights (2003), ungraded stakes (2011), and Europe (2009).
For what it’s worth, the Champagne winner this year was Havana, an all out victor who should be outlasted in Santa Anita. He’s currently the 3/1 favourite and looks opposable. The Frontrunner (formerly the Norfolk) was taken by Bond Holder in fine style, readily asserting in the last half furlong over the Juvenile course and distance. We Miss Artie won the Breeders’ Futurity, the other main prep race, and he too did it well.