Double Dutch, 23rd October 2013
Yesterday went pretty much the same way as Monday. We got the 1-2 in race 1 and a small exacta (it was, admittedly, only a 3-horse race!), but things went to pieces later on.
The best I could manage in the second contest was a third placed finish from the favourite Miguel Grau. He stayed on well to get within a half-length of the eventual winner, but near misses don’t top the bank up!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Sonofvic: won at 13/8
Kentford Grey Lady: 2nd at 5/4 (SP 10/11)
(The Exacta paid out at £3.60 to a £1 stake)
Miguel Grau: 3rd at 7/4 (SP 6/4)
Trial to date:
52 winning selections from 173 = 30.06%
15 winning doubles in 48 days = 31.25%
P/L : +0.9pts (+0.96% ROI)
We’ve now used up our small cushion and need to get back to winning ways with these…
There are just four runners set to contest this one, but it is (in my eyes, anyway!) a two-horse race. Sudden Wonder is the likely favourite and is currently best priced at 11/10 (Stan James) and has shaped well in both starts to date, despite being beaten on both occasions. He does look progressive though and he was beaten last time out into second place by Pinzolo who has since won again. Both his jockey and trainer have good records here, which should also be a factor.
My preference however is for Richard Hannon’s Cape Wrath who is generally an 11/8 shot. He won on debut at Newbury over this and on similarly soft ground as he’ll face here and his experience on soft ground should be the deciding factor. The only issue, perhaps, is the 5lb concession to Sudden Wonder.
The withdrawal of Upton Mead has rendered this a two-way battle between the two horses at the top of the market. Niki Royal goes well fresh and a break of 167 days shouldn’t be an issue, as she won at the end of january after an 11 months absence. She goes well on soft / heavy ground and is expected to take this at 13/8 (Betfred).
Her biggest rival today should be Red Rock, representing the in-form Emma Lavelle yard. This one has tumbled in the weights and now runs off 94, some 6lbs lower than when second at Stratford and this is the same mark that he last won off, so he’s likely to be competitive at least. He also has winning and placed form on soft ground and at 5/2 (Hills) could upset the apple cart here.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Sudden Wonder / Niki Royal @ 5.52 with Stan James
Sudden Wonder / Red Rock @ 7.00 with BetVictor
Cape Wrath / Niki Royal @ 5.95 with BetVictor (6.24 with non-BOG SkyBet)
Cape Wrath / Red Rock @ 8.33 with BetVictor and Ladbrokes