Stat of the Day, 24th October 2013
It seems that my error in yesterday’s post went unnoticed, as Anglophile was actually ridden by Mickael Barzalona for Charlie Appleby and they proved to live up to their fearsome reputation at HQ. Between them they had two winners and a 4th placed finish.
Unfortunately, for us, we were on the horse that finished 4th. I did, however manage to beat the market quite comfortably, having taken 13/2 about a 3/1 favourite.
For the record, I said Silvestre de Sousa was on board, but he actually rode Devilment for Charlie Appleby in the same race, finishing second. So we’d have lost either way round, I’m afraid.
Late evening sand action awaits us today in the…
Where Marco Botti will be aiming to continue his fine excellent form and also to maintain his tremendous record here at Dunstall Park.
Marco really has got his string in fine fettle at present with 10 winners from 23 in the last fortnight at all odds. That 43.5% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 23.9pts, a return of almost 104% above stakes invested and all 10 winners have come from the 17 runners priced at 7/1 or under.
10 from 17 is a remarkable 58.8% strike rate and the 29.9pts profit represents almost 176% of stakes.
Not only does Marco has an excellent recent record, he has also been consistently turning out winners here at Wolverhampton for a good while now. In fact since the start of 2012, his record here with runners priced at 7/1 or under reads as 36 winners from 99 with 48.4pts (+49% ROI) coming from that 36.4% strike rate. Incidentally, 38 of those 99 runners were fillies, of which 15 (39.5%) were victorious producing 28.1pts (+73.9% ROI) profit.
The reason I mentioned that the girls were outperforming the boys is simply because both of Signor Botti’s runners here this evening are female!
Summer Dream is a 9/2 shot in the 6.40 race and has a decent chance of breaking her maiden tag at the 13th attempt. She’s not a bad sort, but despite being very consistent (7 top 4 finishes at 7f), she always seems to find one or two too good for her. She’s pretty well treated now off a mark of 73, which might just do the trick, but I’ve passed her over in favour of Wakeup Little Suzy.
Wakeup Little Suzy was a comfortably 5 lengths winner on her only other previous outing here at Wolverhampton off a mark of 71. She then stepped up to Class 4 for a couple of runs and performed well without winning at Goodwood (3rd over a mile) and at Kempton (5th over 7f, but eased down once beaten). She drops back down a grade here and runs off a mark only 3lbs higher than her course victory.
The 7 furlongs seemed too short last time out and they way she ran over the mile at Goodwood suggests that todays 8.5f should be more to her liking. I’m told that she’s off to the sales next week, so it’s in her connections best interests that she runs under optimum conditions today.
I’d expect Wakeup Little Suzy to go off somewhere in the 4/1 to 5/1 area, so I was pleased to see both William Hill and Paddy Power offering 7/1 BOG. At that price, I think there’s enough scope for a safety-first E/W bet, so that’s my play for today.
If she goes on to win, a 0.5pts E/W bet at 7/1 BOG returns 4.2pts profit, which won’t be too far from my anticipated SP, but with the added insurance of the place bet. To see whether it’s still viable to go E/W, simply…
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Here is today’s racecard!