Double Dutch, 25th October 2013
No joy yesterday, despite Upswing getting us off to a flyer in our first race at our advised odds of 7/4. This put us in a great position to land consecutive doubles, but I was left with egg on my face, if truth be told.
We’re nothing but honest here and I totally discounted the chances of the 10/1 outsider of four runners, even going so far as explaining to one of our readers why I didn’t think it would win.
I have to admit that our reader got it spot on, as Be All Man grimly hung on to the lead, denying our runner Woodbank by less than half a length in a race littered with jumping errors by all four runners.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Upswing: won at 7/4
Woodbank: 2nd of 4!
Oyster Shell: 3rd of 4!
Trial to date:
55 winning selections from 179 = 30.73%
16 winning doubles in 50 days = 32.00%
P/L : +0.4pts (+0.41% ROI)
We’re just about keeping our heads above water here, but I’m confident of getting back to winning ways with these back to back races…
First In The Queue is expected to live up to his name here and he’ll take all the beating in this one. He’s currently 11/10 with both Paddy Power and Bet365, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go off at odds on. He comes here in great form (12331 in his last five outings) and had been running well at Class 2 level (beaten by a neck at Market Rasen) before dropping back tot his Class 3 standard, where he absolutely hacked up at Cheltenham a week ago.
He escapes any penalty for that win, as it was a conditional jockeys’ race and the talented Jerry McGrath retains the ride and is able to use his valuable 3lbs claim here, which will certainly help matters.
I also like the look of Ittirad, who has been mega consistent over the last 18 months (4322 on the flat before a switch to hurdles with finishes of 2217). We can ignore that 7th place run last time out, as he found the step up to Class 1 Listed company a bit too much and is eased back to Class 3 here. He has also come down 3lbs for that defeat and his mark of 116 looks very workable for a horse that reached a Flat rating of 95.
He has already demonstrated that he can jump and he’ll certainly not lack for speed between the hurdles and at 4/1 with BetVictor, offers a real value alternative, should the favourite not succeed.
Musical Comedy was successful for us a week ago when winning at Haydock over today’s 6f trip on equally soft ground as he’ll face today. He will, of course, carry a penalty for that emphatic 6 lengths win, but he is still technically 3lbs well in with the handicapper and is expected to complete consecutive victories at 2/1 with Hills and Bet365.
The possible fly in the ointment is the 16lbs he has to concede to the filly Dutch S, who is the least exposed runner on show here. She comes here after winning a 6f maiden four weeks ago, also at Haydock and looks very leniently treated off a mark of just 76 for her handicap debut. She’s expected to improve for her second run and despite being well treated at the weights is available at an attractive 100/30 with both Hills and BetVictor.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
First In The Queue / Musical Comedy @ 6.30 with Bet365
First In The Queue / Dutch S @ 8.67 with BetVictor
Ittirad / Musical Comedy @ 13.75 with BetVictor
Ittirad / Dutch S @ 21.67 with BetVictor