Stat of the Day, 25th October 2013
Close, but not quite, was the call yesterday, as Wakeup Little Suzy just failed to overhaul the leader, finishing second by a neck at 8/1.
That SP of 8/1 took me by surprise, I have to admit. I thought we’d stolen a march on the market by taking 7/1 about a horse I expected to run as low as 4/1. In fact she traded as low as 7/2 with some firms as late as tea time and even opened up on course at 9/2.
She was held up for a run, but the eventual winner was allowed too easy a lead around the final bend and couldn’t/wouldn’t be caught. Nevertheless, our safety-first approach added another 0.3pts to the kitty and whilst it doesn’t sound much, it’s still a 30% return on our outlay.
A formidable partnership runs for us today in the…
When John Gosden (Johnny G, as Matt would say!) employs the services of William Buick here at Newbury, the outcome is generally profitable. In the 2011/13 period, William had ridden 11 winners from the 48 of Johnny’s horses he’s partnered here: a better than expected 22.92% strike rate producing decent profits of some 11.47pts, or 23.9% of stakes. When the money is down and the odds drop, the strike rate and profitability levels increase accordingly.
Ten of those eleven winners came from the thirty runners priced at 6/1 or under, raising the strike rate to an excellent 33.33% and the returns of 20.95pts (+69.83% ROI) are just brilliant.
Messrs Buick and Gosden actually team up on three horses here today: Martagon Lily looks a decent E/W bet at 7/1 in the 3.35 race, whilst Blessington will be very hard to beat in the 5.10 race, but his odds of 5/4 are a little too prohibitive for this feature. Instead the one that takes my eye is 2 yr debutant Jefferson City, who makes his racecourse bow today and as a son of Montjeu is related to a whole host of successful horses, including Group winners and Jefferson City himself holds a Derby entry.
John Gosden has a terrific record with 2 yr olds on debut, a record that is actually improved with William Buick on board. In the same 2011/13 timeframe as earlier, Mr Gosden’s record with 2 yr olds on debut is 27 winners from 164 (16.46% SR) for 82.14pts (+50.09% ROI) profits, increasing to 16/79 (20.25%) for 47.87pts (+60.59% ROI) when ridden by Mr Buick.
Of those debutants priced at 6/1 or under Mr Gosden’s record reads 19 winners from 79 (24.05% SR) for profits of 22.05pts, an ROI of 27.9%, yet with Mr Buick in the saddle the figures are an excellent 13/42 (30.95% SR) for 33.70pts (+80.24% ROI) profit.
All of which gives me enough confidence that Jefferson City will be able to overturn the short priced favourite here today at odds of 3/1 BOG with Bet365 and further enhance John Gosden’s excellent run here at Newbury in 2013, where 7 of hs 16 runners priced at 6/1 or under have gone on to win, bringing in 21.6pts (+135% ROI) with William Buick’s contribution being 4 winners from 10 for 13.88pts.
So, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Jefferson City at 3/1 BOG with Bet365, but as always, I heartily recommend that you…
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