Double Dutch, 26th October 2013
As expected First In The Queue took the opener yesterday, despite conceding between 9 and 20 lbs to his rivals.
Both he and the runner-up hit the last hurdle, but our selection stayed on strongest to score by half a length. He was sent off at 10/1, but we’d got on early at 11/10, so we’d 1.05pts on each of our selections in race 2, 10 minutes later.
There, Musical Comedy won for us for the second successive week and attracted some support from our early 2/1 advice and was eventually sent off as the 11/8 fav.
As in race 1, our 2nd pick finished third, so no forecasts/exactas yesterday, but we did pick up another winning double at 6.30 off two horses whose SPs combined to a double of 4.53.
This meant by taking the early BOG odds on offer, we managed to make an extra 50% above SP, once again highlighting the necessity to have accounts with all the BOG bookmakers.
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Yesterday’s results were as follows:
First In The Queue: won at 11/10 (SP 10/11)
Ittirad: 3rd at 5/2
Musical Comedy: won at 2/1 (SP 11/8)
Dutch S: 3rd at 4/1
Trial to date:
57 winning selections from 183 = 31.15%
17 winning doubles in 51 days = 33.33%
P/L : +1.55pts (+1.55% ROI)
We’re still just above the break even line, which in itself is a fantastic achievement compared with where we were a month ago, but we need to press on further and hopefully we’ll boost the bank with these today…
Where I find it hard to believe the winner won’t come from the top two in the market and I expect the 11/8 favourite Al Alfa to score reasonably comfortably at the expense of Arthurs Pass, who is best priced at 7/2.
Al Alfa won two races ago and looked set to repeat the feat last time at Wincanton nine days ago. Unfortunately he slipped on landing and unseated his rider, but there was no actual jumping error involved. He was travelling really well that day and was well set to win. he runs off the same mark today and should gain some compensation here.
Arthurs Pass is no mug either, having notched a hat trick at the start of the year and ran really well in defeat when finishing third at Cheltenham last time out in April. He might well need a run, though, after a six month break and his fitness will have to be taken on trust, otherwise I feel he’d be shorter in the market today.
Just six runners go to post for this one, but I’m happy to disregard the bottom half of the market and focus on Rebel Rebellion, Sire de Grugy and Majala who are currently best favoured in the market.
The odd one out for me in this ménage à trois today is going to be the 2/1 favourite Rebel Rebellion.
I prefer Sire de Grugy of the three, a classy horse who is 121411 over the larger obstacles and has been running in good company at a higher level than this. If he’s anywhere near the level he showed last time out at Sandown when beating Finians Rainbow and several of the runners in today’s Old Roan Chase (3.05 Aintree), then he’s going to be hard to beat at a reasonable price of 100/30 with Coral.
Majala, however, could well push him all the way. He scored a hat trick of wins on soft/heavy ground last winter/spring and although well beaten when stepping up in class at Cheltenham in March (6th place in the Arkle), he got back to winning ways by landing a hurdle event at Auteuil. If he’s on song today and goes well fresh, he could land a bit of a coup at 7/2 (William Hill).
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Al Alfa / Sire de Grugy @ 10.31 with Coral
Al Alfa / Majala @ 10.31 with BetVictor
Arthurs Pass / Sire de Grugy @ 18.77 with Coral
Arthurs Pass / Majala @ 19.50 with BetVictor and William Hill