Stat of the Day, 26th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th October 2013

It wasn’t one of John Gosden’s better days yesterday: just one of his six runners made the frame and our selection, Jefferson City was amongst his four unplaced runners at Newbury, normally a happy hunting ground for him.

So, a loss on the books for us as we travel to a rather damp Merseyside for the first race on the card aka the…

1.55 Aintree

When Tony McCoy will aim to edge that little bit closer to 4,000 career wins aboard Ifandbutwhynot. AP comes here in great form after riding another five-timer at Carlisle on Thursday and since he drew a blank on Friday, he’ll be itching to get back into the winners’ enclosure here.

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Ifandbutwhynot is making his seasonal reappearance after a break of 6 months since falling at the last when he’d every chance of landing the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr. He’s trained by David O’Meara, who is a bit of a dab hand at getting horses to run well after an absence from the track.

In the 2011/13 time frame, David had reintroduced 146 runners to the track after a break of 2 to 8 months, with 30 f those 146 horses winning on their reappearance. That’s a 20.55% strike rate which has generated level stakes profits of 72.5pts or 49.7% of stakes invested.

I’m well aware that 2 to 8 months is a large gap and considering that Ifandbutwhynot now runs after a break of 6 months and a week, we should focus on Mr O’Meara’s horses coming off the back of a break of 4 to 8 months, perhaps.

The figures for those runners are 22 wins from 99 (22.22% SR) for 76.56pts (+77.3% ROI), which is very impressive indeed.

Now, David O’Meara is one of what calls his “Saturday Trainers” ie trainers with a good record in Saturday handicaps. I’ve touched on this in the past, but certain trainers, including David, have a good record in such races for a variety of reasons, possibly including training many syndicate horses whose owners can only get to the track at weekends to see their horses run or maybe they train horses for owners who like to be seen on TV.

Whatever the reason, there is a small band of trainers who consistently turn a profit from these Saturday handicaps. David O’Meara’s own record in these events is 63 winners from 406, a strike rate of 15.5% (pretty good from such a large sample size) for profits of 106.4pts or 26.2% of stakes and he looks set to increase that tally with Ifandbutwhynot here today.

I’m not normally what you’d call a favourite backer for SotD, but one has to concede that you can turn a profit from backing the right ones, as one in three do win after all! Ifandbutwhynot is highly likely to have the word favourite after his name today, be it sole, joint or co, but that’s not deterring me from backing him here.

In fact, over the 2011/13 period, 19 of the 55 favourites (34.55%) in handicap hurdles here at Aintree have won their races and if you’d had a tenner on all of them, you’d now be £291.20 better off, which represents a near 53% return on your money.

And the final set of stats go back to our illustrious jockey, Mr AP McCoy. Tony has won 7 out of 23 races here at Aintree in the last two years, a terrific  30.43% strike rate and throughout his career, backing every one of his rides in handicap hurdles here at this Merseyside venue would have seen you make a 55% profit on your stakes invested.

Ifandbutwhynot is a classy horse and provided the fall last time out doesn’t play on his mind, he looks set to get back to winning ways and he looks set to be suited by the ground, currently described as Good To Soft. He has won 2 from 3 on such ground in the past, but with the amount of rain around the North West at the moment, don’t be surprised to see that official description changed to Soft. That shouldn’t be a problem either, as he won on soft ground over this trip at Cheltenham in the past.

I’m on Ifandbutwhynot at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor, but that price is also available at Bet365, Betfred, Paddy Power and William Hill, so for your pick of the pack, simply…

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.55 Aintree

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