Double Dutch, 28th October 2013
I had one of those Eureka days yesterday, where it all just fell into place for me.
Double Seven duly completed his five-timer with a pretty comfortable 5.5 lengths victory at 7/4, which was then followed up by my 8/1 fancy Georgie in the second race.
It was, admittedly, a selection that could have made a fool of me, but…
…I’d liked the look of him all along and I’d backed him as a single bet before putting him in the double, which paid out at a juicy 23.75/1 despite him being backed right in to 100/30 at the off.
He cruised home to win by eleven lengths and to cap it all off, I’d both selections in a 150/1 treble with yesterday’s Stat of the Day horse, which was a 5/1 winner.
I mention this, because I know many of you do put the three together like that.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Double Seven: won at 7/4
Laganbank: 4th of 6
Georgie: won at 8/1 (SP 100/30!)
Pat Garrett: unplaced
Trial to date:
60 winning selections from 191 = 31.41%
18 winning doubles in 53 days = 33.96%
P/L : +9.93pts (+9.55% ROI)
We’ve given ourselves some clear daylight and also guaranteed that the 8-week extended trial will finish in profit. The worst case scenario will be a small 3.93pts gain, but I’ve three more opportunities to turn the profits into something more substantial starting with these on a day where finding a couple of suitable races has proven difficult…
I’ve selected this race, because I can’t see Rule The World failing to land this at 6/4. He was in excellent form last season, easily winning a Grade 2 hurdle here at Naas at the turn of the year where he eased down to the line and still beat subsequent dual grade 1 winner (including the William Hill Supreme Novice Hurdle!) Champagne Fever by some 40 lengths.
After that win here at Naas, Rule The World also went to Cheltenham too and there he got to within 4 lengths of The New One, which now looks like a very good result indeed. The only blot on his recent record is that he was pulled up last time out, but something was amiss that day and I’m happy to over look it.
My main problem here is finding an alternate pick, but I’ve plumped for another longshot in the shape of Seskinane, who was a non-runner 8 days when I nominated him for this feature!
Seskinane is expected to continue his progression over hurdles here today. He finished 2nd of 25 on his first attempt at Fairyhouse in April over two miles, before beating all fifteen rivals home to land a maiden at Kilbeggan over 2m 3.5f on soft ground seventeen days later. He was then first past the post at Sligo over 2.5 miles on heavy ground ahead of Willie Mullins’ top-class On His Own, but was subsequently disqualified due to the actions of his jockey.
He tackles the same trip and type of going today, so there should be no stamina issues and his run last time out (disregarding the DQ of course!) puts him well above the rest of this field. I think he’s the most likely to cause an upset of the five challengers to the favourite and looks a decent E/W punt at 7/1 with William Hill.
Where I’d expect the Ballydoyle trained Marchese Marconi to run out a fairly comfortable winner at around 6/4 (BetVictor). Simply put, I think he’s the best on show here. He’s easily the best on official ratings and with his jockey’s 7lb claim taken into consideration, this shouldn’t be too difficult for a horse who has won one and been placed three times from his four efforts at this trip.
As with the first race, it’s a bit of a lottery to find a back up to the main selection, but I’m going to go with the 10/1 shot Rory O’Moore. Although is overall profile isn’t brilliant at 4 wins from 20, he’s a triple bumper winner who acts well with some cut in the ground. If anything, it’s his jumping that has let him down in the past, so a 1m 6f flat race might well play to his strengths if the favourite fails to shine.
And although he hasn’t been at his best over hurdles, he was still considered good enough to be sent out in races at Grades 1 & 2 plus Listed events last winter. If lightning can strike twice after yesterday’s 8/1 winner, Rory O’Moore might well get home for us at 10/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Rule The World / Marchese Marconi @ 6.25 with Paddy Power
Rule The World / Rory O’Moore @ 27.50 with Bet365 and Coral
Seskinane / Marchese Marconi @ 18.75 with BetVictor
Seskinane / Rory O’Moore @ 88.00 with William Hill!