Stat of the Day, 30th October 2013
Ticoz was very disappointing on Tuesday, I’m afraid. He was held up for a run and when asked to quicken 2f out, there was nothing there.
He folded tamely and his jockey wisely didn’t force the issue and eased the horse down once beaten. Plenty of people will have been let down by this one, as our 3/1 shot (2.55/1 after a Rule 4) was sent off the 11/8 favourite.
I go away in the early hours of Thursday morning, so I’m hoping to sign off for a couple of weeks with a winner for you in the…
Where I’m backing Evan Williams’ Definite Dream at 9/1 E/W with Bet365.
Definite Dream makes his reappearance after a break of just over six and a half months (199 days to be precise!) and comes to Carlisle for his handicap debut. He’s an unexposed sort, with only five prior starts to his name, but his form has been good from day 1.
To date his record reads 13302, with the 11th finish the only blot so far. In fairness, that race was run on good ground and his other four runs were on soft ground, like he’ll face today. So, I’m happy to rule the going out as a possible reason for a poor run here.
He’s 1 from 1 at this minimum 2m trip and he was third on his only previous outing here in Cumbria, so I’m hoping the track familiarity might also help.
Evan Williams’ horses do tend to run well after a break. Since the start of 2011 he has saddled up 38 winners priced below 12/1 from the 189 runners he has sent out after a break of 2 to 8 months. That 20.11% strike rate has produced healthy level stakes profits of 41.32pts or 21.9% of stakes.
I appreciate that 2 to 8 months is a fairly wide banding, but if we consider those off the track for 6 to 8 months, like today’s runner, that record becomes 9 winners from 39 (23.08% SR) for 22.2pts (+56.9% ROI). A relatively small sample size, but excellent profits nevertheless.
Mr Williams also has a decent record with handicap debutants over this time frame with 13 winners from 53 priced under 12/1 with that 24.53% strike rate helping his followers to profits of some 33.47pts or 63.15% ROI.
The yard’s record with handicap debutants allied to the way they get horses to fire first time after a break strengthens the case for a horse who has made the frame four times out of five so far. The current 9/1 BOG odds gives us some leeway for a safety-first approach and as such, we’re happy to recommend an E/W bet at those odds with Bet365.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Definite Dream wasn’t sent off at 6/1 or under, so grab the value whilst you can. To see what’s offer with the other firms…
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Here is today’s racecard!
***Matt’s away in the States on Breeders Cup duty for the next few days, so SotD might well be rested until he returns.***