Double Dutch, 30th October 2013
I had a poor day yesterday and about the only thing I got right was the finishing order of my selections. Both my first picks got home before the alternates, but I couldn’t even muster a winner between them.
Captain Moonman was 3rd in race 1, but he was well beaten, if truth be told, as he came home almost 15 lengths off the winner. And although we fared slightly better in the second race, our runners finished 2nd and 3rd of 4 runners and were both outdone by the 10/1 outsider.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Captain Moonman: 3rd at 100/30
The Last Bridge: unplaced
Billybo: 2nd of 4! (SP 9/2)
Kilvergan Boy: 3rd of 4!
Trial to date:
61 winning selections from 199 = 30.65%
18 winning doubles in 55 days = 32.73%
P/L : +5.93pts (+5.49% ROI)
Today is the last day of the 8 week trial of Double Dutch and although is hasn’t been a raging success, we’re in a far healthier position than we were after a couple of weeks! I also go on holiday on Thursday, but the intention is to resume this feature upon my return on Monday 18th November, provided it’s what people want, of course!
With that in mind, I’m hoping to sign off in style with another winning double from these races…
Amulet just has to be the one to beat here and is quite rightly the overnight favourite at 11/8 and comes here on the back of three wins and a one length defeat in her last four races. She won here over course and distance two outings ago and despite being raised 5lbs, she was good enough to win again at Newbury on soft ground last Friday.
She made all to demolish her rivals by nine lengths on testing ground at Newbury and she looks well set to defy another 6lb penalty here. The big question is who can beat her?
The answer is likely to be none of them, but the one with the best chance (in my opinion, of course) is probably the 13/2 shot First Post, who comes here in decent form too, having secured two victories (both on soft ground) in his last three efforts. He’s 8/31 over this trip and 3/6 on soft ground, so these possibly represent his optimum conditions and he’d be a decent E/W bet at those odds, for he’d be much shorter were Amulet not in the race.
Sherman McCoy has been making decent progress of late, finishing third in his last outing of the summer before returning from a 5 months break to finish 2nd of 5 at Wolverhampton, when he probably needed the run. He was last seen 11 days ago when winning by 11 lengths at Catterick on heavy ground and he now makes his debut for his new trainer.
He has moved to Brian Ellison’s yard and Brian has a brilliant record with newcomers to his stables and it is expected that Brian will be able to eke further improvement from him and this is probably why he’s currently the 100/30 favourite.
I’m concerned that the handicapper has stuck the knife into his chances today, though, with a 10lb rise for his recent exploits and for that reason, my preference is for Opera Buff, who seems to offer real value at 7/2 for this one. He won by 10 lengths when upped to today’s trip on heavy ground two starts ago, before being defeated by just a neck at Goodwood 17 days ago, that was over 2 miles on soft ground. All of which suggests stamina won’t be his downfall today.
Opera Buff is up 4lbs for those two performances, but even a career high mark of 80 might not be enough to stop him scoring again in conditions that will suit him down to a T. But I’m expecting a good battle between the two.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Amulet / Sherman McCoy @ 10.29 with Bet365
Amulet / Opera Buff @ 10.69 with Bet365
First Post / Sherman McCoy @ 30.33 with Bet365
First Post / Opera Buff @ 32.50 with BetVictor