Sat TV Trends: 2nd Nov 2013

Nicholls Eyes Another JNWine Chase….

Andy Newton is on hand with all the key TV trends for this Saturday’s meetings at Ascot, Wetherby & Down Royal…..

Ascot (C4/ATR)

 2.10 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f CH4

8/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Aged 8 years-old or younger
8/10 – Irish (4) or French (4) bred
7/10 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
6/10 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
6/10 – Rated 130 or lower
6/10 – Unplaced favourites
5/10 – Aged 8 years-old
5/10 – Having their first run of the new season
4/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Ran at either Ascot (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
3/10 – Won carrying 11-12
2/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

Note: The 2005 running was staged at Ascot

2.45 –William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m CH4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
9/9 – Had won over at 2m or 2m1f over hurdles before
8/9 – Never raced at Ascot before
6/9 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
6/9 – Having their first run of the season
5/9 – Placed favourites
5/9 – Ran at Huntingdon (2) or Aintree (3) last time out
5/9 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
5/9 – Unplaced last time out
4/9 – Won by a French bred horse
4/9 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
3/9 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
2/9 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/9 – Won by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Ridden by AP McCoy

3.20 – United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m CH4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Had won a chase race over at least 2 ½m before
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Aged 8 or older
6/9 – Had run at Ascot before (4 won)
6/9 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
6/9 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
6/9 – Unplaced favourites
6/9 – Were having their first run of the season
6/9 – Unplaced in their last race
6/9 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
6/9 – Carried 10-10 or more
5/9 – Officially rated 135 to 138 inc
4/9 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/9 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/9 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/9 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/9 – Winning favourites

Wetherby (C4/RUK)

1.50 – OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y CH4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Never raced at Wetherby before
6/6 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
6/6 – Finished unplaced last time out
6/6 – Had between 2-5 previous hurdles wins to their name
5/6 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
5/6 – Were having their first run of the season
4/6 – Placed favourites
4/6 – Had won a NH Flat race previously
4/6 – Ran at Punchestown last time out
2/6 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 years is 11/2
Alasi won the race for Paul Webber in 2011


3.00 – bet365 Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f CH4

11/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f over hurdles before
11/11 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
9/11 – Failed to win their last race
9/11 – Placed favourites
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
8/11 – Aged 6,7 or 8 years-old
8/11 – Officially rated 149 or higher
7/11 – Ran at either Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
6/11 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
5/11 – Had won at Wetherby before
3/11 – Trained by Philip Hobbs

3.35 – bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f CH4

10/11 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
10/11 – Won over at least 3m over fences previously
10/11 – Having their first run of the new NH season
10/11 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting market
9/11 – Favourites placed
9/11 – Officially rated 151 or higher
9/11 – Raced at either Ayr (3), Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (2) last time
8/11 – Won at least 4 times over fences previously
7/11 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
6/11 – Raced at Wetherby before (2 won)
6/11  – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/11 – Favourites that won
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Trained by Evan Williams
2/11 – Ridden by Timmy Murphy
2/11 – Ridden by Paul Moloney
Only 3 horses aged less than 7 years-old have won since 1981
The race has been won by a previous winner six times since 1981
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ stable won the Charlie Hall Chase in 1992, 1994, 2005 & 2007

Down Royal (C4/ATR)

2.30 – JNwine.com Champion Chase (Grade 1) 3m CH4

10/11 – Won at least 5 times over fences previously
10/11 – Won at least a Grade 2 Chase previously
8/11 – Won over at least 3m over fences previously
8/11 – Aged 8 or older
7/11 – Winning distance 2 ½ lengths or more
7/11 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the market
7/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/11 – Were having their first run of the season (including last 5 winners)
6/11 – Had won a Grade 1 Chase before
5/11 – Favourites that won
4/11 – Had run at Down Royal previously
4/11 – Had run at Aintree last time out
4/11 – Raced at Limerick last time out
4/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/11 – Trained by Arthur Moore

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays