Stat of the Day, 19th November 2013
I signed off for my holidays almost three weeks ago with a nice 9/1 winner, it was unfortunately subject to a 30p in the pound deduction, but the E/W return was 4.78pts about a horse that came home at an SP of 100/30.
Once again, that result highlights the importance of using BOG bookies and I’m pleased to say that, in my absence, SkyBet have now followed suit and are offering BOG prices on all racing.
I’m hoping to pick up where I left off with an evening trip to Dunstall Park for the…
Where I’ve just taken 7/2 BOG about top weight Jay Bee Blue.
Jay Bee Blue has been in excellent form in the last five weeks or so, having gone down by just a neck at Kempton before securing back to back wins at Lingfield and Kempton. He can be excused his latest run (last Friday), where he was 5th (back at Lingfield) when he was simply given far too much to do. He was drawn out wide that day and the race didn’t really play out the way he’d have liked, but more is expected today under talented jockey Oisin Murphy who will also take a valuable 5lbs off his back.
He runs over this course and distance for only the second time in his career, having won on his previous attempt back in September 2012, so he’s not a complete stranger to Wolverhampton.
Male horses aged between 3 & 7 years old running in All Weather handicaps within five days of a defeat, where they finished in the top six runners have an excellent record over the last three years, when sent off at 8/1 or lower.
127 winners from 526 runners is not only a good sample size, it also represents a very healthy 24.14% strike rate, which has generated decent profits of 130.45pts, or 24.8% of stakes invested. The figures for 2013 alone read 46/158 (29.11% SR) for 84pts (+53.17% ROI), with Wolverhampton’s stats being 17/68 (25% SR) for 25.8pts (+38% ROI) this year.
Jay Bee Blue is in good nick and the stats are there to back up the selection with the added comfort of knowing that Oisin Murphy will be giving it his all to improve his already excellent reputation. His last 100 rides have produced 52pts profit at SP, whilst his 41 rides on the All-Weather to date have generated 34.6pts profit at betfair SP via a 20% strike rate.
As such, Jay Bee Blue looks a good bet at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power and SkyBet (now a BOG bookie) are matching that price, so why not…