Stat of the Day, 21st November 2013
No hat-trick performance on Wednesday, despite a gutsy battling effort from Rockchasebullett. Our 5/2 selection was sent off as the 3/1 favourite, but a series of jumping errors put paid to any chances of him winning.
He managed to regain composure from 4 poor efforts, but the blunder at the third from last fence saw him relinquish the lead and his final hope. As it happens, he made a hash of the last too and lost third place just before the line.
His jumping hadn’t seemed to have improved as I’d have liked, but there’s always today for us to tackle the…
Wincanton is another of those tracks I’ve mentioned in the past as being favourable to returning C&D winners who won (anywhere!) last time out.
Since the start of 2010, 41 former C&D winners have returned to this course on the back of a win and have been sent off at single digit odds in their bid to achieve back-to-back victories.
14 (34.15% strike rate) of those 41 have been successful and in turn have produced level stakes profits of just over 22pts, or 53.7% of stakes invested with a 40% strike rate for those sent off at 4/1 or under.
The Paul Nicholls-trained Sound Investment fits that bill here, having won last time out, incidentally over course and distance to take his record to two wins and a place from just four attempts over hurdles.
This horse has been off the track for just over 30 weeks since that victory, but Mr Nicholls is renowned for his horses coming well fit and ready from a break and runs off the same 128 mark as that last outing where he won by a good 9 lengths and five of the next six horses behind him that day have since gone on to run well, clocking up a win and seven places from 10 races between them.
This won’t be a walk in the park by any stretch of the imagination and the difficulty of the task is reflected in the market, but I think this one still has plenty in reserve and I’m happy to back Sound Investment at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor. I’ve taken this price quite early, so if you’re reading this on Thursday morning, I’d suggest that you…