Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd November 2013

We returned to winning ways yesterday with our second success inside four days as Super Villan came out on top in what proved to be a very attritional battle in South Wales.

The early 12/1 was all taken up by midnight and this horse attracted support all day before eventually running out a 3/1 winner. We’d gone E/W of course, but still made a juicy 7.5pts profit on the day, as the de Boinville/Bradstock partnership duly obliged for us.

Late night sand action for Saturday in the…

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9.20 Wolverhampton

Where I’ve just taken 5/1 BOG with bet365 about the consistent Men Don’t Cry.

This one has been running pretty well ever since winning at Ffos Las four months ago, finishing in the top three in six of seven races since with his last eight outings reading 13326322 and he rarely runs a bad race. He has won at this trip in the past and has gone well here at Wolverhampton, where his last five efforts (over 14 months) have resulted in finishes of 24223.

He does, however, have that annoying habit of finding one just too good for him, but he’s fairly well treated at the weights despite his consistency and the booking of Mark Coumbe to take 3lbs off once more might just be pivotal in a race that looks a little poorer than the others he has contested of late.

I’m not deterred by his inability to win in the last 3 months since that Ffos Las victory, his consistency will help here tonight, for horses placed 2nd or 3rd in three successive races before coming to race on Class 5 or 6 contests here at Wolverhampton do have a very good record this year.

The criteria I’ve applied for today’s stats are as follows: horses placed 2nd or 3rd in their last three outings, now running in a Class 5 or 6 contest at Wolverhampton and have enough support to be in the top three of the market and priced at 6/1 or under. Basically, consistent types that are attracting money!

This year alone, such horses have won 26 of 68 races: a strike rate of 38.24% giving rise to level stakes profits of 33pts at betfair SP, the equivalent of 48.5% of stakes invested. Today’s trip is 1m4f and the record for qualifying horses at this trip this year reads as 5 wins & 3 places from 10 races. The 50% strike rate producing 8.9pts profit.

I’m aware that today’s stat is a little from the left field, but the numbers do stack up and it can only be Men Don’t Cry‘s lack of recent victories that makes him as long as 5/1. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that price reduced as the day progresses, so it might be wise to…

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Here is today’s racecard!

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