Double Dutch, 25th November 2013
I suppose that we were due a poor weekend after the recent good run run we’d been on.
Saturday’s losses were repeated yesterday, where Azorian’s three length defeat in the opener was the best I could manage for you. Things went from bad to worse in race 2, whereI embarassinly picked the 3rd and 4th placed horses in a 4-horse race!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Azorian: 2nd at 2/1
Carriganog: 3rd at 7/2
According To Trev: 3rd of 4! (SP 11/10)
Sonofvic: last of 4!
Results to date:
69 winning selections from 227 = 30.40%
21 winning doubles in 62 days = 33.87%
P/L : +7.00pts (+5.74% ROI)
No time to dwell upon the wekkend’s results as I’m aining to get back to winnnig ways with the following…
Despite being raised a massive 16lbs for his recent win at Stratford, I still fancy What A Good Night to follow up here. He was a 31 lengths winner that day, but that doesn’t tell the full story. he was unchallenged from 2 out and could easily have doubled that margin of victory had he wanted to. Any repeat of that showing should be more than enough here and the 15/8 on offer from both BetVictor and Stan James might end up looking generous.
The main challenge is expected to come from Long Wave (9/2 BOG in most places) and King Massini, who is generally a 3/1 shot. King Massini’s yard have a good record here and his recent efforts in Irish points races suggest he’ll be suited to 3m chases, but I’m going to side with Long Wave.
Long Wave has let his backers down recently with finishes of 334 as favourite in his last three outings since winning at Uttoxeter four months ago. He has, however, been given some respite from the handicapper and runs off a mark two pounds lower than that win and the presence of Kielan Woods in the saddle taking another 3lbs off mkaes him a dangerous contender at a good price, should the favourite labour under the burden of those extra 16lbs.
Like Long Wave above, Frontier Vic has also let favourite backers down in his last couple of outings since a win, but looks to have a decent chance of making amends here at a widely available 11/4. He still looks fairly well treated at the weights for this contest and I’m sure he’ll relish the step up in trip, as his last two efforts were clearly in races far too short for him.
My preference here, however, is for Realta Mo Croi, who can also be backed at 11/4 (Stan James alone here). She was raised 21lbs off the back of an easy win at Fontwell in June, before taking a 4 month break. She was popular in the market on her first effort at the new mark and ran very creditably to finish 4th of 16 with a mistake at the last costing her at least one place.
She should come on for that run from 18 days ago and I expect to see her back in the winners enclosure later this afternoon.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
What A Good Night / Realta Mo Croi @ 10.80 with both Stan James and Coral
What A Good Night / Frontier Vic @ 10.80 with Stan James
Long Wave / Realta Mo Croi @ 20.63 with both Stan James and Coral
Long Wave / Frontier Vic @ 20.63 with Seanie Mac, BetFred, Stan James & BoyleSports