Stat of the Day, 26th November 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2013

Dansili Dutch was friendless in the market on Monday afternoon, but the horses never know what price they get sent off at!

Our  selection was advised at 3/1 BOG, but eventually ran out a 5/1 winner, a shade cosier than the official one length margin of victory. We’re staying on the all-weather today, as we tackle the…

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2.40 Southwell:

Where the 4yr old USA-bred gelding Ever Fortune tackles a 1m4f Class 5 handicap and is currently a 5/1 shot.

This horse was formerly with Rae Guest, but is now under the eye of Brian Ellison, for who he makes his yard debut today. Brian Ellison has an excellent record from recruits from other yards with 24.8% of his immigrants scoring first time out. The raw stats are 23 wins from 118 runs in the last three years for level stakes profits of 54.4pts (+46.1% ROI).

It’s also pretty well documented that some USA-bred horses go well here at Southwell. Males running in handicaps at trips of 1m6f or less in fields of 8 to 13 runners have won 20 of 67 races in that same 2011/13 timeframe, with the 29.9% strike rate yielding 126.9pts (+189.4% ROI) profit with 2013 seeing 4 winners from 15 for 27.7pts.

4yr old males go particularly well here too: 26 winners at all odds from 102 attempts is a 25.5% strike rate and the level stakes profits are very good too: 102.6pts or 100.6% of stakes with 15 winners priced under 6/1 from 51 runners (39.4% SR) These 15 have generated 14.6pts, a return of 28.6%.

There’s three strong stats to back up Ever Fortune here, but it’s a little surprising to see him as long as 5/1. I can only put it down to his A/W inexperience and the presence in the field of Golden Jubilee who looks too short for me at 7/4. The favourite is certainly consistent, but he’s up in both trip and grade here and could well get caught out.

I think there’s some value in the price of our selection, so it’s a 1pt win bet on Ever Fortune at 5/1 BOG. This price is widely available, so please…

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