Double Dutch, 28th November 2013
Oh dear, another poor set of results for us yesterday, where the best we could muster was a couple of third-placed finishes in two races I really expected us to be profiting from!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Banoffee: 3rd of 7!
Fattsota: last of 7!
Amir Pasha: 3rd of 9
Pindar: 4th of 9
Results to date:
70 winning selections from 238 = 29.41%
21 winning doubles in 65 days = 32.31%
P/L : +1.00pts (+0.78% ROI)
So, that’s it: no more free hits. We’re on the verge of slipping into the red, unless, of course, we strike some form with these:
At the risk of sounding a bit la-la, this has to be between Koolala and Dewala!
Dewala will have decent pace between the hurdles, having won at 1m and 1m3f (twice) on the all-weather at Southwell this year and she showed decent promise when finishing third on her hurdling debut , staying on well at Wetherby 12 days ago. A significant fact here is that trainer Michael Appleby has replaced the amateur jockey from last time out with the champ AP McCoy, who you’d expect to get a little bit more of this mare who’s already likely to come on for that first effort. All in all, she looks a good bet at 5/2 with Stan James
She won’t, however, have it all her own way, as Koolala has made a decent start to her career, winning a bumper on debut and finishing 5th of 17 in a better quality bumper at Cheltenham in April, where she was only 6 lengths off the winner from a race that has already produced 7 winners.
She finished second of 15 last time out, which was her hurdling debut and was only beaten by a decent looking evens favourite out of Nicky Henderson’s yard who had dropped down from Listed class to Class 5. She has a decent chance here today of making further improvement and can be backed readily at 100/30.
Nicky Henderson’s debutant Maestro Royal is the interesting pick here and whilst it’s a bit of a leap of faith backing an unraced horse, his breeding suggests he’ll go well at a reasonable price of 100/30 with Coral.
He’s representing a yard with a 23& strike rate in bumpers at this track and according to his press write-up “Closely related to bumper/2m1f-3m2f hurdle/high-class chase winner Barbers Shop, half-brother to bumper/2m hurdle winner Heather Royal and 2m3f-3m hurdle/chase winner Busker Royal; dam second in bumper/2m hurdle, sister to bumper/hurdle winners; top yard won this three times since 2006, two of those wins with newcomers.”
I’d expect the main challenge to come from 2/1 favourite Thomas Brown, ridden by Noel Fehily and trained by Harry Fry: the pair of whom combined to win this race last year with Oscar Rock. This horse was a dual point-to-point winner in the summer, beating a couple of subsequent Rules winners and runs for a yard in cracking form this year (25 wins from 76 for 44.7pts profit and 16/43 for 31pts with Noel Fehily in the saddle.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Dewala / Thomas Brown @ 9.75 with both Seanie Mac and Boylesports (Sporting Bet offer 10.50 non-BOG)
Dewala / Maestro Royal @ 14.00 with Stan James
Koolala / Thomas Brown @ 13.00 with BetFred
Koolala / Maestro Royal @ 18.00 with Stan James