Stat of the Day, 29th November 2013
We got ourselves back amongst the winners yesterday as Milosam justified me taking a lower priced selection than usual by coming home the 2/1 fav (we’d taken 85/40 of course!).
I didn’t actually see the race, but I believe he was left with a clear run home after his main rival fell at the second last, handing our pick a win by a massive 28 lengths.
The 2.13pts are a welcome addition to our bottom line which has performed really well in the back-end of the year and I hope/expect to add to it today after the running of the…
Where Tom Eaves (the jockey, not the Bolton Wanderers reserve team striker!) will ride Dodina for trainer Brian Ellison at a current best price of 4/1 BOG with both Bet365 and Paddy Power for this Class 5 Handicap.
Today will be the first time Dodina has turned out for Brian Ellison after the 3 yr old filly had shown plenty of promise in her seven starts for Peter Chapple-Hyam with finishes of 3212653 and was very unlucky here last time out over course and distance, finishing 3rd and less than 2 lengths from the winner despite getting bumped and then denied a clear run.
With a little more luck in running, she can score on her yard debut here, an occurrence that Brian Ellison is getting quite accustomed to! If we look at horses making their debut for him after having had a least a couple of runs under their belt, the results are excellent. These horses invariably attract market support and most of them go off at an SP of 8/1 or under.
In the last three years, there have been 90 such runners yielding 27 winners (30% SR) and 46.5pts profit, a return equivalent to 51.6% of stakes.
As I said at the top, Tom Eaves takes the ride and these lower class races at Wolverhampton seem to play to his strengths. In the last three years, Tom has ridden 84 horses at 8/1 or under in Class 4 or 5 races here at Wolverhampton. Tom has managed to hit the line first in 22 of those races, a strike rate of 26.2% generating level stakes profits of 48.1pts: an ROI of almost 57.3%.
If we combine the trainer stats with the jockey stats and add in the promise already shown by the horse, then a 1pt win bet on Dodina at 4/1 BOG might just be a good thing. Someone else somewhere must also think so, as she has been backed in from an early 8/1 price, but I was unable to get to a PC until now!
Irrespective of that, 4/1 is still a decent bet in my eyes and I’ve gone with Bet365 for this one, but I strongly advise you to…