Double Dutch, 3rd December 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 3rd December 2013

We drew another blank yesterday in what is proving to be a testing time for the double dutch. We had to settle for a pair of runner-up positions yesterday, although the bare results look better than the actual performances.

Mister Wiseman was beaten by a good 12 lengths and although Rural Affair was only just held off by a head, it was to a horse that I had completely dismissed out of hand. My 8 yr old daughter remarked “Oh, Dad! You got that very wrong didn’t you?”  She was, of course, entirely correct, as 8 yr old girls always are!

Yesterday’s results were as follows:

Mister Wiseman: 2nd at 9/4 (SP 2/1)
Further More: 4th
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Rural Affair: 2nd at 2/1
Ragged Robbin: last of 5!

Results to date:
73 winning selections from 257 = 28.40%
22 winning doubles in 70 days = 31.43%

Stakes: 138.00pts
Returns: 135.50pts

P/L : -2.50pts (-1.81% ROI)

I need to arrest this recent slide and today would be a good day to do this! Hopefully, these two races will be the key to a return to profitability:

12.45 Southwell:

15/8 favourite Last Shot takes on Moorlands Jack again, just as they did three weeks ago at Exeter over today’s trip and although today’s favourite prevailed that day, I fancy Moorlands Jack to turn the tables from that 4 lengths defeat here.

Moorlands Jack has rested since then and will come here fresher and meets Last Shot on 7lb better terms and in conditions better suited than last time out. He seems to prefer the left-handed tracks and the better the ground is, the more likely he is to succeed at a decent price of 11/4.

There won’t be much in it, as Last Shot is running really well and was only narrowly (SH) defeated at Ludlow at a higher level than this last time out and gets to run off the same mark as that Class 3 outing. This has the makings of a decent contest between the two.

3.30 Sedgefield:

Donald McCain loves sending his horses here and has a 33% strike rate here in the last three years and his horses are flying at present (7/19 in the last week). He runs Vasco Pierji in this bumper with a view to going one better than his narrow defeat on debut at Perth almost 6 months ago. It’s currently a 5/4 chance that the McCain team’s record in Sedgefield bumpers will improve from its current 8 from 19 over the last three years.

The major rival for the prize has to be AP’s mount Fly Home Harry, who currently trades at around the 7/4 mark. This one held on well to score on debut at Ayr a month ago in very testing conditions and looks set for another good run here. I’d have expected this to be clear favourite, but for having to concede 7lbs to the McCain horse. That said, I expect this to be a close match.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Last Shot / Vasco Pierji @ 6.48 with BetVictor
Last Shot / Fly Home Harry @ 8.29 with Stan James
Moorlands Jack / Vasco Pierji @ 8.25 with William Hill
Moorlands Jack / Fly Home Harry @ 10.80 with William Hill