Stat of the Day, 4th December 2013
Monbeg was terribly disappointing on Tuesday afternoon and never really featured in the race at all. He was in the rear throughout and began to struggle quite a long way from home and was left a long way behind the others.
Although he plugged on to complete the race, he finished a good 55 lengths or so off the winner, as he trailed home last of the 6 runners to finish, despite being sent off as the 3/1 favourite.
More chasing action for Wednesday as we aim our sights at the…
Where the selection is Oscar Hill, currently available at 5/2 with BetVictor and is trainer David Bridgwater’s only runner of the day.
David Bridgwater is one of a small group of trainers that you can back blindly in handicap races and still make a profit. His best returns of late have come in handicap chases like this one if you had backed all his handicap chasers in the last three years that were sent off at 8/1 or under, you have made a tidy profit from your investments.
In fact, he has saddled up 22 winners from 75 handicap chasers in that timeframe, which is a fantastic 29.33% strike rate and has generated 40.9pts profits to level stakes, a return on investment of 54.5%.
Oscar Hill is still unexposed over fences and comes here on the back of an easy win at Exeter last time out. He made all that day and although he was left in the lead as his nearest rival fell 2 from out, he did look like he was going to win comfortably anyway.
As it happens, he got home by some 18 lengths easing down and the manner of that performance would suggest he’ll cope with a 7lb penalty to double up here. A slight drop back in trip won’t do his chances any harm either.
There is a good chance that he’ll attract money and go off as favourite for this one, but favourites in handicap races at Ludlow do better than expected with 24 winners from 72 (33.33% SR) in the last two years producing 15.9pts (+22.1% ROI) profit. Favourites in handicap chases have a 35% strike rate (15/40) in that same time period and have generated level stakes profits of 12.6pts, equivalent to 31.5% of stakes.
5/2 is getting towards the bottom end of the odds range for SotD, but I still think there could be some value in that price, so the advice is a 1pt win bet on Oscar Hill at 5/2 BOG with BetVictor. We’re well aware that there’s a whole host of other bookies vying for your business, so why not…