Stat of the Day, 5th December 2013
Back to winning ways yesterday as Oscar Hill made all once again and prevailed by the best part of two lengths.
He raced clear from the off and although he was joined briefly, he soon pulled clear again and the result was probably a shade more comfortable than the official margin might suggest.
Hopefully, you heeded my advice and took advantage of the 5/2 BOG price on offer, because our selection was eventually sent off some 35% shorter at 13/8.
All-Weather action for us today with the…
Where Tom Eaves will ride Boogangoo in this Class 5 handicap over 9.5 furlongs for trainer Keith Dalgleish.
Mr Dalgleish has a good record here at Dunstall Park in his relatively short career as a trainer. I’ve taken a look at his results here and he does particularly well in handicap races over trips of 6 to 12 furlongs when sent off at odds of 8/1 or less.
His record under those conditions reads as 22 winners from 83 attempts, a strike rate of 26.5% generating level stakes profits of 58.2pts, the equivalent of 70.1% of stakes: very healthy indeed.
Jockey Tom Eaves also has a consistently decent record on this track too. Since the start of 2008, Tom has ridden 104 horses priced at 8/1 or under in Class 4 or 5 contests here at Wolverhampton and he has made the frame on 51 occasions, notching up 28 winners for a strike rate of 26.9% and level stakes profits of 75pts (+72.1% ROI).
Messrs Dalgleish and Eaves team up with Boogangoo this afternoon and this 2 yr old bay filly is currently a 4/1 shot in most places, although she has already been cut slightly by a couple of firms.
She comes here in good heart after winning on this very track last time out, when she stayed on well to win by almost a length and a half and the way she ran on towards the line suggested that today’s extra furlong could well suit her.
That win was almost three weeks ago and the re-opposing Jazzy Lady was third that day (2.5 lengths behind) and the latter has since run twice, both here at Wolverhampton, finishing third again and then winning last time out. Our selection is actually better off at the weights with Jazzy Lady today, meaning that the biggest danger is likely to be the favourite Groovejet.
Groovejet isn’t necessarily going to get this surface first time out and as such, I couldn’t back her as low as 5/2, but her presence at that price means we can get a bit of value from our selection.
Therefore, the call is a simple one to me: it’s a 1pt win bet on Boogangoo at 4/1 BOG. This price is widely available, so I’m reinvesting some of yesterday’s booty from BetVictor, but as always, I suggest that you…