Sat TV Trends: 7th Dec 2103

A Big Day At Sandown This Saturday…..

Another huge Saturday of NH action with the C4 cameras heading to Sandown and Aintree – As always Andy Newton’s got all the big-race trends and stats……

Sandown (C4/RUK)

1.50 – Racing Post Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

10/10 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
10/10 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Won last time out
9/10 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
9/10 – Placed favourites
9/10 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
9/10 – Aged 6 or younger
8/10 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (1 won)
8/10 – French (5) or Irish (3) bred
8/10 – Raced at either Cheltenham (5) or Warwick (3) last time out
7/10 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
6/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/10 – Winners went onto finish 1^st or 2^nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Ridden by Timmy Murphy
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 15/8

2.25 –Jumeirah Hotels & Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y CH4

10/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/10 – Raced within the last month
10/10 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
8/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
8/10 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
8/10 – Won last time out
8/10 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
7/10 – Rated between 116-128
6/10 – Unplaced favourites
5/10 – Irish bred
2/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/10 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 15/2

3.00 –BetVictor Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

11/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/11 – Aged 9 or younger
10/11 – Had won a Grade One chase before
9/11 – Placed favourites
9/11 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
9/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
9/11 – Officially rated 165 or higher
8/11 – French bred
8/11 – Won last time out
8/11 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/11 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
7/11 – Raced within the last month
7/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/11 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/11 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
3/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/11 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/11 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
1/11 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

3.35 – London National (Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m5f110y CH4

9/9 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
9/9 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
9/9 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Aged 8 or older
8/9 – Rated 126 or higher
7/9 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
7/9 – Unplaced favourites
7/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/9 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/9 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Towcester (2) last time out
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 6/1

Aintree (C4/RUK)

2.05 – Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f CH4

9/11 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
9/11 – Raced no more than once that season
8/11 – Won between 2-5 times over fences previously
8/11 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
8/11 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
8/11 – Run within the last 6 weeks
8/11 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
8/11 – Rated between 123-138
7/11 – Had run at Aintree previously
6/11 – Finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
6/11 – Raced over the Grand National-style fences previously
5/11 – Favourites placed
5/11 – Returned at double-figure odds
5/11 – Raced in the previous season’s Grand National
3/11 – Won by an Irish-based stable
3/11 – Won their last race
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Won the Grand National later in their career
2/11 – Favourites that won
0/11 – Won the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has landed the prize 5 times since 1993

3.15 – Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y CH4

8/8 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
7/8 – Aged 8 or older
6/8 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m5f before
6/8 – Irish bred
6/8 – Rated 124 or more
5/8 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
5/8 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/8 – Winning distance 2 ½ lengths or more
5/8 – Had run at Aintree before (2 over the GN style fences)
4/8 – Returned a double-figure price
4/8 – Carried 10-12 or more
2/8 – Winning favourites
1/8 – Won last time out
1/8 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5^th)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 9.5/1

 
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