Stat of the Day, 8th December 2013
Whisper ran a pretty decent race yesterday and did, as expected, finish ahead of Upswing again. Unfortunately the pair were 3rd and 4th and the race was taken in great style by Paul Nicholls’ Saphir du Rheu who travelled best of all to romp home by 8 lengths.
Lower grade stuff on Sundays, I’m afraid, but every race has a winner, so let’s see if we can pick one in the…
Where I’m taking some of the 9/2 BOG currently on offer for Donald McCain’s Kruzhlinin, who won here over course and distance just over four weeks ago.
Donald McCain has found Kelso to be a happy hunting ground in recent years with 22 winners from 74 runners in the last three years. This equates to an overall strike rate of 29.7% producing level stakes profits of 51.1pts or 69.1% of stakes. His record in chases over that same period is 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 17.5pts (+60.3% ROI).
If we focus purely on his runners priced at 6/1 or under, his record here since 2011 improves to 21 winners from 59 runners (35.6% SR) for profits of 35.22pts (+59.7% ROI) with chasers providing 8 winners from just 24 (33.33%) for 22.5pts (+93.8% ROI).
Kelso is also one of those tracks that favours previous course and distance winners. Horses with CD next to their name who won last time out are 9/35 (25.7%) here in that same 2011/13 time slot, generating level stakes profits of 5.85pts or 16.7% of stakes. Those returns might seem a little low, but when there’s money down for them, ie evens to 7/1, we get to discard 8 losers, leaving us with a 9/27 (33.33%) record with profits of a more palatable 13.85pts or 51.3% of stakes.
So, we need a Kelso CD runner who won last time out and is competing in a chase event and trained by Donald McCain. Step forward Kruzhlinin!
This horse is actually 2/2 at Kelso, and 2/3 on good to soft ground. He won on his only previous attempt at today’s trip (CD LTO!), but stays 3m1f and he was won three times from seven with Jason Maguire on his back.
He’s up 8lbs for that last win, but the other main protagonists have all been raised too, so the current odds may well have some value to them, hence me placing a 1pt win bet on Kruzhlinin at 9/2 BOG.
I’ve gone with Seanie Mac today, the sponsors of our weekend competition, but other firms are matching this price, so why not…