Double Dutch, 10th December 2013
After successive wins at 20.6/1 and 41/1, there was no big win yesterday.
However, with another two winners under our belt at 2/1 SP and 85/40 BOG, that was still good enough for us to secure our third win on the bounce at odds of 8.375/1 to keep the recent mini-revival on track.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
It’s High Time: won at 2/1
Katachenko: 3rd at 7/2 (SP 11/4)
Modernism: won at 85/40 (SP 7/4)
Doldrums: 5th at 9/4
Results to date:
80 winning selections from 284 = 28.17%
25 winning doubles in 77 days = 32.47%
P/L : +19.97pts (+13.14% ROI)
7 furlongs on the sand and a novice hurdle have caught my eye today:
In a race pretty short of recent winners, the consistent Galician can finally break her 9-race losing run. She’s been knocking on the door of late with finishes of 2232 in the last seven weeks with two of those efforts being defeats by just a head and a neck in all-weather listed races.
This is an easier assignment than both of those runs and jockey Joe Fanning excels at races over 7f and a mile on the A/W and Galician‘s current odds of 11/2 at Ladbrokes could well look big come the finish.
The major threat is likely to come from the 11/4 (SkyBet) favourite Dubai Hills whose record here at Southwell reads 3111111 and now bids for the 7-timer, with 4 of those wins being over course and distance and is only rated a pound higher than the last of his course wins back in March. This could be a lively affair.
I really like Lily Waugh for this one and at 15/8 with BetVictor, actually looks a decent proposition for me to have a singles bet later. She was second in a listed bumper at Cheltenham in mid-November with a couple of today’s rivals more than 10 lengths behind and looks well placed to score on her hurdling debut. Jumping shouldn’t be an issue, as she’s a former Point winner in Ireland and her bumper form shows she can outrun them at this level.
I’d expect the biggest challenge to come from Roja Dove, a former winner over 7f and a mile on the flat, ensuring good speed between the hurdles and comes here in good order. She has contested three hurdle races since her last flat outing in August and has won twice before finishing second in a decent grade 3 contest at Down Royal six weeks ago.
Roja Dove is currently priced around the 4/1 mark and those odds look quite attractive for a horse of her undoubted ability and should Lily Waugh not quite fire today, this one could be making a swift return to winning ways.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Dubai Hills / Lily Waugh @ 9.3125/1 with SkyBet & Coral (11/4 & 7/4)
Dubai Hills / Roja Dove @ 19.625/1 with BetInternet (11/4 & 9/2)
Galician / Lily Waugh @ 16.25/1 with BetVictor (5/1 & 15/8)
Galician / Roja Dove @ 29.25/1 with BetInternet (9/2 & 9/2)