Stat of the Day, 11th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2013

No joy with our American angle yesterday as Hussar Ballad was a tad disappointing and never really got on terms.

Having taken an early 4/1, we beat the market by half a point, but after chasing the leaders to the pole, he was then ridden along in an attempt to challenge but he was already weakening with a furlong to go, eventually finishing 7th of 12.

I should, however point out that two of the races at Southwell were taken by USA horses at odds of 8/1 and 7/2, so there’s still something there.

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We stay on the All-Weather for a Class 2 Handicap over 11 furlongs, shown on your racecards as the…

6.40 Kempton:

Marco Botti’s horses are in good form at present with 4 winners and 2 placers from 12 runners in the last fortnight, but followers of his methods will have come to expect this, as he generally does well in December.

He has a 10/32 record in handicap contests in the month of December with horses that we’d consider for SotD ie odds of a minimum 7/4 and above. The 31.25% strike rate has produced 56.4pts profit to level stakes, a remarkable return of 176.2% above stakes invested, and he’s already 1 from 2 this month, as today’s selection Halfsin was a 10/1 winner over course and distance here last Wednesday.

Halfsin was by no means Marco’s first winner at Kempton this year, in fact he’s had a great 2013 in handicap contests here, winning 12 of the 37 he’s been represented in, a strike rate of 32.4% responsible for returning 27.6pts or 74.7% profit.

So, we know the yard’s horses go well here and that they tend to fire in December and also that Halfsin was a course and distance winner last time out, but what else do we know about this horse?

He has taken quite well to the A/W surface here, having also finished third over C&D on his only other completed run at Kempton and he also has a decent record on the flat, with 4 wins and 2 places from 14. Today will be his twentieth trip to a track and he’s still in that rare category of horses who have been profitable to back blindly over a reasonably large number of runs: 5.5pts at SP from 19 races = 28.95% ROI.

He’s up 6lbs for last week’s C&D victory, but they way he was still pulling clear at the end of a race he’d dominated from start to finish suggests he’ll be able to shoulder the extra burden, but the rise has been accounted for in his 9/1 price today. If he’s allowed to dictate affairs again and get another easy lead, the rest of the pack could very well struggle to get past him.

I’ve a sneaking suspicion that he’s slightly overpriced here, but I’m going to play a cautious safety-first approach here with a 0.5pt E/W bet on Halfsin at 9/1 BOG. This price is widely available and I’ve used Bet365 for this one. You can choose to use a different firm whose prices can be seen when you…

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