Double Dutch, 11th December 2013
It looked very much like a four-timer was on the cards yesterday, but the strongly fancied (SP of 10/11 from our 15/8 BOG) Lily Waugh didn’t have enough in the tank to get up the hill at Fontwell and finished third, a couple of lengths shy of the winner.
This was after we’d taken 1st and 3rd in the previous race at Southwell, with the favourite Dubai Hills prevailing at 11/4. We got a good run for our bets yesterday, but ultimately no reward.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Dubai Hills: won at 11/4
Galician: 3rd at 6/1
Lily Waugh: 3rd at 15/8 (SP 10/11!)
Roja Dove: 5th at 17/2
Results to date:
81 winning selections from 288 = 28.13%
25 winning doubles in 78 days = 32.05%
P/L : +17.97pts (+11.67% ROI)
It’s a nother novice hurdle to start with today, followed by a teatime A/W Nursery handicap:
Although this doesn’t look great on paper, conditional jockeys riding in a novice hurdle contest, there are some big outfits being represented here, making this an interesting contest.
I’d expect the winner to come from the three at the head of the market and the one I’m omitting is the French import Vivaccio. He comes here on the back of a win in France, but it’s hard to assess the form of that run and the fact that he has to give at least 7lbs away will make his UK debut very tough.
This leaves us with Silsol and Algernon Pazham and although there’s a disparity in their betting odds, I don’t think there’ll be that much between them at the close.
Silsol is currently the 11/8 favourite and Paul Nicholls’ runner showed some promise when 4th on debut at Aintree where the front two have both gone on to score since. He’ll not lack for speed, having won a 10.5f handicap on the flat and looks a real contender here.
Algernon Pazham is a very serious threat, though and comes here with the benefit of having tackled this track before, when 2nd to Dubai Prince (a former Group 3 flat winner!) over 2 miles just over three weeks ago. Both his breeding and the way he ran last time out suggest that he’ll be better suited by this step up in trip and looks to have a decent chance at 3/1 (Stan James)
With a recent record of 223242, the 13/8 favourite Our Gabrial just keeps running into one (or two!) too good for him, but dropping down in class today might just bring that elusive first win. He gets to run off the same mark as last week’s narrow (SH) defeat at Lingfield and the booking of Jamie Spencer is interesting, as Jamie tends to do very well on Richard Fahey’s horses.
However, there’s a real potential fly in the ointment again today, in the shape of Irish Tears, a steadily improving John Gosden horse. This one was second on his handicap debut a week ago over this track and trip and is sure to come on for that run. He stayed on well last week and finished strongly and if the favourite isn’t careful, he could get turned over yet again by this 11/4 shot.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Silsol / Our Gabrial @ 5.5625/1 with BetVictor (6/4 & 13/8)
Silsol / Irish Tears @ 8.375/1 with BetVictor (6/4 & 11/4)
Algernon Pazham / Our Gabrial @ 9/1 with Stan James (3/1 & 6/4)
Algernon Pazham / Irish Tears @ 13.0625/1 with Coral (11/4 & 11/4)