Stat of the Day, 13th December 2013
Yesterday’s race was the proverbial handicapper’s dream scenario as all 9 runners were only split by about 3 lengths from first to last.
Unfortunately, it meant, though our selection gave a decent enough performance to get within a couple of the leader, it actually meant we finished 6th of the 9.
He was still staying on at the end and wasn’t disgraced, but it’s a loss in the final analysis.
More A/W action today for us in the…
December is the time of year when it pays to follow trainer Marco Botti, especially in handicap contests. In the month of December he has saddled up 9 winners from 31 in handicap races when priced between 13/8 (I don’t like betting below this for SotD!) and 12/1 (my usual, but not set in stone, upper limit). The 29% strike rate from those runners has yielded 32.45pts profit, a return of almost 105%.
His yard is in great nick again at present with five winners from fifteen in the last fortnight.
Marco also has a very good recent record at Wolverhampton. In the last couple of years 30 of his 99 runners sent off at odds between 13/8 and 6/1 have gone on to win to produce a record of 30.3% winners and 42.6pts (+43% ROI) profit.
Just the one runner for Signor Botti today: unsurprisingly running in a December handicap at Wolverhampton! This is the 3yr filly Magika, who has been very consistent since her debut when she finished 11th of 14 at Kempton. Since that day, she has made the first four home in each of her subsequent nine efforts, winning twice, including her only visit here to Wolverhampton.
She comes here off the back of a two month break since winning on soft ground at Windsor over virtually the same trip as today and the firmer ground will take less out of her, which is just as well, since she shoulders a 6lb rise from that win, but still carries bottom weight here thanks to the 5lbs allowance, which could be vital.
The booking of Martin Harley could well be pivotal, Martin’s riding really well at the moment with 7 wins from 19 in the last week alone, including a double on the Kempton card last night.
In fact his mount won yesterday’s SotD race and Martin’s record on the Botti horses this year has been excellent. If we go back to those 13/8 to 6/1 odds parameters again, the figures for the Botti/Harley combination read 19 winners from 60 (31.7% SR) for 28.7pts (+47.8% ROI) profit.
More notably they are 7/18 (38.9%) for 11.4pts (+63.5% ROI) here at Wolverhampton this year.
Magika is sure to attract plenty of attention today, running off a reasonable weight, thanks to her allowance and is likely to contest favouritism with Knockgraffon Lad, so I was reasonably happy to see her available at odds of 3/1, when I was expecting her to be 5/2 or even shorter.
So, my call to you is a 1pt win bet on Magika at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, but SkyBet, who now also offer BOG, are currently matching that price, so why not take the opportunity to…