Double Dutch, 14th December 2013
I’m running a little late today due to a couple of unavoidable family commitments, but our action is from this evening’s Wolverhampton card, so you’ve still plenty of time to get those bets on!
It was a losing day yesterday, despite getting the first two home in the opener, where we managed to beat the well-backed 8/11 favourite with a 9/4 shot.
This gave us great confidence for the tea-time encounter, where Nice Arty had attracted plenty of support taking him from 7/4 to an even money SP and he looked every inch a winner until the 2 pole where he appeared to go into reverse, eventually coming home at a trot in last place.
Trinity Lorraine gave a decent account to run third, but still a good 10 lengths off the runaway winner.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Rasco: won at 9/4
Royal Captain: 2nd at 13/8 (SP 8/11!)
Trinity Lorraine: 3rd at 3/1
Nice Arty: last of 7
Results to date:
84 winning selections from 298 = 28.19%
26 winning doubles in 81 days = 32.10%
P/L : +16.97pts (+10.61% ROI)
As I alluded to earlier in the piece, late evening A/W action is our offering today, where there’s a couple of interesting favourites and a couple of outsiders who look over priced:
The favourite and most likely winner here is the 5/2 shot Seek The Fair Land, who looks well weighted to get back to winning ways and runs off the same mark as when unlucky in defeat at Lingfield last time out. He was denied a clear run that and had to be snatched up and switched out wide, yet still only went down by three parts of a length. No disrespect intended to Amir Quinn who was on board that day, but I feel the in-form (113127 here last night) Luke Morris might just make the difference today.
The outsider of interest here is George Fenton, who is available at odds of 8/1 with Bet Internet. A course and distance winner last time out and a 6-times course winner all told, he comes here carrying only a pound more for last Saturday’s win and must be respected/feared.
As above, the favourite is the one they all have to beat and Al’s Memory should be pretty good value for his current 11/4 odds with Stan James. He’s one of those horses who hits a purple patch and will win a few races together before going off the boil for a while, so it’s important to catch him right. He roared back to form to win here last time out off a mark of 80 and at just 2lbs higher, he’s on another very workable weight, having previously won off higher.
You can make claims for several of his rivals as our Plan B for this race, but I’m siding with Jay Bee Blue, who is in the form of his life, having won three of his last five efforts on A/W, including a win here at Wolverhampton in mid-November (two starts ago). The race wasn’t run his way last time out and he was left with far too much to do and if kept handy for a finish, could give the main selection a real headache at a massive price of 8/1 (Bet Internet).
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Seek The Fair Land / Al’s Memory @ 12.13/1 (Stan James : 5/2 & 11/4)
Seek The Fair Land / Jay Bee Blue @ 30.50/1 (Bet365 : 5/2 & 8/1)
George Fenton / Al’s Memory @ 30.50/1 (Bet Internet : 8/1 & 5/2)
George Fenton / Jay Bee Blue @ 80/1 (Bet Internet : 8/1 & 8/1)