Stat of the Day, 14th December 2013
Magika was a nice 3/1 winner yesterday for us, despite going off at half that price on course, further highlighting the value of the early BOG prices. Martin Harley gave another account of himself at Wolverhampton last night with a well-timed ride.
He sat patiently in behind the leaders and when he asked the horse to go and win the race, she quickened readily and was comfortable in the end.
A change of tack/class today as we tackle the…
Ruby Walsh is the man to watch this afternoon, as his record at Cheltenham is amongst the best there is.
In the last 10 years he had ridden 125 winners from 579 attempts, a strike rate of 21.6%. You could have backed every single horse Ruby has ridden here and still shown a profit of 76.1pts, a return of 13.14%.
13.14% is a little lower than the usual sought out by SotD, but when it’s over so many races, it just has to be respected. If we further draw down on those 579 runners, we see that 311 of them were sent off at odds between evens and 6/1 for a strike rate of 27.65%, courtesy of 86 winners. So, 53.7% of the runners provided 68.8% of the winners.
The 86/311 record has generated 73.6pts profit or 23.65% ROI. So, the general advice is to back ALL Ruby’s mounts priced between evens and 6/1.
Ruby has made a change of direction of late and now spends the bulk of his riding time back in Ireland and is more of an infrequent sight at UK racecourses, so we need to kep an eye out for him popping up. He rode well at this December meeting last year with 4 winners from 8 and of the six priced between Evens and 6/1, he finished 1212P1.
He comes over for just one ride today and that itself sparks my interest, as it’s a long way to come to ride a loser! The horse in question is the 3/1 shot Glen’s Melody, who comes here with an excellent record of 8 wins and 3 places from her 11 starts, including back-to-back Grade 1 victories in the spring of this year, before coasting to victory on her seasonal reappearance four weeks ago.
It’s not the easiest race she’ll encounter, but she’s a decent sort in good form, ridden by a jockey who excels at the track and as such, I’m more than happy to place a 1pt win bet on Glen’s Melody at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor (reinvesting some of yesterday’s winnings!), but that price is on offer in several other places, so the advice would be to…