Stat of the Day, 15th December 2013
Glen’s Melody ultimately proved somewhat of a disappointment for me, the SotD backers and of course, Ruby Walsh who travelled over from Ireland for just the one race.
The horse itself ran well enough until push came to shove and then there was nothing there and he folded tamely to finish 3rd of the 4 runners, some 30 lengths behind the eventual winner.
The only positive to draw from yesterday was our ability to beat the market again, availing ourselves of 3/1 BOG about a 15/8 favourite, in fact I know some of you got 7/2.
Beating SP will bear fruit in the long run and long-term profit is our ultimate goal.
However, a short-term gain wouldn’t go amiss from the…
Tom Symonds has only been training horses for just over two years, but he is rapidly developing reputation as a man to follow. In fact he’s one of those trainers who you would have made a profit from by just backing all his runners.
To date, his stats read 35 winners from 346 (10.12% SR) for 63.16pts profit, an ROI of 18.25%, not bad at all from blind backing.
If we then consider his record in hurdle contests, those figures improve to 25/196 (12.76% SR) for a fantastic 103.04pts profit, a return of 52.6% of stakes.
He also has a strike rate in excess of 25% with hurdlers priced at 7/1 or under and his record here at Southwell with hurdlers is 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 11pts (+137.5% ROI) profit, with all three winners coming from the four horses sent off at 7/1 or under for a return of 15pts (+375% ROI).
His yard is in a spot of form at the moment with three winners from six in the last fortnight and he has three runners here at Southwell today. Trojan Sun runs in a chase at 12.25, leaving two hurdlers to choose from. Of the two, I’m going to overlook Amber Flush who is likely to a longshot outsider in the 1.30 race, all of which brings us to the selection of Midnight Belle.
Midnight Belle comes here today in search of a hat-trick after wins after a win over this trip at Worcester seven weeks ago followed by a course and distance victory here at Southwell five weeks ago.
She finished three lengths ahead of Rattlin that day, who subsequently went on to land a fairly easy win at Wetherby and our mount’s 5lb rise for that last win is totally offset by her jockey’s claim today.
Any kind of repeat of her latest efforts should be more than enough today for a horse who has achieved four wins and a place from her last six runs. So, I’m placing a 1pt win bet on Midnight Belle at 11/4 BOG with SkyBet. Hills and Coral are also showing 11/4 at the time of press (10pm Saturday).
As is the norm, I post Sunday’s selection on the night before the race, so I strongly advise you to…