Stat of the Day, 16th December 2013
The best Midnight Belle could manage was third yesterday and the bare result makes his run look a little better than it actually was.
If you had a closer look, you’d see that he was well beaten by some 16 lengths or so and even relinquished second place and his half of his meagre prize money on the run in.
This performance capped a fairly dismal weekend for me and a losing week for SotD.
We are however, still in profit for the month and I’m hoping to add to the tally with a speculative effort in the…
Evan Williams has recorded decent profits from his longer priced hurdlers here at Ffos Las in recent years and will hope to do the same again today with Makethe Mostofnow.
In the 2011/13 time frame in hurdles races here at Ffos Las, Evan has landed 9 winners from the 85 runners sent off at 6/1 and over, which is a reasonable 10.6% strike rate for outsiders and these winners have produced 82.94pts proift, a return of 97.6% of stakes invested.
If we put an upper price limit of 20/1 on these selections, the figures are 8/64 = 12.5% for 41.2pts (+64.35% ROI), still very healthy indeed.
Mr Williams has 3 hurdlers and 2 chasers on show today, but the one I’m interested in is Makethe Mostofnow, who is becoming somewhat of a course and conditions specialist. This horse has won 4 times and been placed twice in 16 efforts to date, but his record here at Ffos Las is 4 wins and a place from eight races for 13.34pts level stakes profit. He’s 3 from 5 over hurdles here.
As well as all his career wins coming at this venue, all four have been on similarly soft ground to today’s conditions and he’s also a dual course and distance winner on soft ground here.
On paper, he’s probably not an obvious pick but when ground gets testing, it often pays to side with those runners adept to the conditions and his knowledge of the track means that we might well see some benefit from a 0.5pts E/W bet on Makethe Mostofnow at 10/1 BOG with Coral.
As always, it does pay to see what other firms are offering and the easiest way to do that, is to simply…