Double Dutch, 17th December 2013
Half a length was the margin yesterday as we failed to land a 10.81/1 double.
As expected Matraash had just enough in his locker to take the opener at 5/2 (from 7/2) ahead of 3/1 shot A Little Bit Dusty.
I didn’t think there’d be much between them and the official distance was in fact, just a nose! There was a nice 8.95/1 forecast here too.
This led us to warm 5/4 (from our 13/8) favourite jazzy Lady, who looked every inch the winner with a furlong to go.
All she had to do was pass the leader and take the race.
Unfortunately she didn’t seem happy to pass her rival and after drawing alongside with the victory beckoning, she looked to shy away and eventually went down by half a length, frustratingly taking our bet with her!
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Matraash: won at 7/2 (SP 5/2)
A Little Bit Dusty: 2nd at 3/1
The forecast paid £9.95 here.
Jazzy Lady: 2nd at 13/8 (SP 5/4)
Howz The Family: 3rd of 4
Results to date:
86 winning selections from 310 = 27.74%
26 winning doubles in 84 days = 30.95%
P/L : +10.97pts (+6.61% ROI)
We’re going with the fairer sex in these today:
The American-bred horses seem to love the surface here at Southwell and Frost Fire looks very interesting on her handicap debut. She has finished 322 in three A/W maidens (Lingfield & Wolverhampton twice), but wasn’t disgraced in any of those efforts: in fact the total margin of defeat was 2.5 lengths across all three races.
Joe Fanning has a good record on the mark Johnston horses and this one has a fairly lenient (in my opinion) opening mark of 65 for her handicap debut and I feel she could well be better than that, enabling her to gain her first victory at pretty attractive odds of 3/1 with Stan James.
The big danger, of course, is the 5/2 favourite Ivy Port, who hails from the Michael Appleby yard, whose horses are absolutely flying at present (8 wins from 17 in the last week!). She was badly outpaced in a 7f contest a week ago, but stayed on strongly to get within 2 lengths of the winner.
She’ll appreciate the extra furlong today and the way she pulled 8 lengths clear of the third placed horses was impressive enough to suggest she’ll be winning again sometime soon, especially as she gets to run off the same mark as last week and she’ll be helped by not being out in stall 10 this time!
Tim Vaughan’s Great Oak is a Grade 3 winner over fences and has run creditably in three hurdles events this winter, winning once and making the frame in the other two. She was third last time out over hurdles to the progressive Mini Muck, who has won twice since.
If she can transfer her chasing ability to a much weaker contest against her own sex, she has every chance of running out a 3/1 winner with Richard Johnson in the saddle, who has a 26% strike rate on Tim Vaughan’s hurdlers producing an ROI of almost 33%.
Of the remainder, it would have to be between the 13/8 favourite (BetVictor) Java Rose and the 85/40 shot Sudden Wish. The favourite was the better of the two on the Flat and if she manages to get round unscathed, she should have the better run today.
Not only does Java Rose receive 7lbs from great Oak, but she’s back with the in-form Charlie Longsdon again for whom she ran promisingly in three bumpers in the spring.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Java Rose / Ivy Port @ 7.75/1 (SkyBet, Hills and/or Coral : 6/4 & 5/2)
Java Rose / Frost Fire @ 8.38/1 (Boylesports, Seanie Mac : 6/4 & 11/4)
Great Oak / Ivy Port @ 12.12/1 (SkyBet, Hills and/or Coral : 11/4 & 5/2)
Great Oak / Frost Fire @ 13.06/1 (Boylesports, Seanie Mac : 11/4 & 11/4)