Stat of the Day, 17th December 2013
Makethe Mostofnow was sent off at 15/2 (from our advised 10/1) and although he never looked like troubling the winner, he did stay on well to snatch 3rd on the run in.
We’d gone E/W about a horse who loves the tough going at Ffos Las and he netted us a small, but welcome 0.5pts profit from the race: a sum I’d settle for every day if truth be told.
Today’s quest for profit leads us to the…
Irish trainer Stuart Crawford has a remarkable record in bumper races with 18 winners from 57 runners since May 2009. That represents a strike rate of almost 31.6% and has produced level stakes profits of some 44.27pts, or 77.67 pence in the pound!
There’s no big winner skewing the returns there either, as his record with runners priced at 6/1 or under is 16 wins from 38 (42.1% SR) for 40.87pts (+107.55% ROI). And from those 38 runners, four have raced here at Catterick at odds of 6/1 or under, finishing 1212 for 4.5pts profit.
Stuart is represented is this contest by Beatu, who showed plenty of promise when 3rd over this course and distance on his debut under Rules thirteen days ago. He was held up for a run that day before staying on well to finish five lengths shy of the winner. he’d have got much closer had he raced a little more prominently.
That said, he still put 7 lengths daylight between himself and the next horse home. The booking of “the Champ” AP McCoy is interesting here for sure. I’m pretty certain that his amateur handler gave it his best shot last time out, but I’d expect better with AP doing the driving on a horse sure to have benefited from the run over course and distance.
Beatu is a half-brother to the useful Dani California who won four times over today’s trip, including the 2009 Irish Cesarewitch. He definitely needs to improve to land that first victory, but conditions seem right for him here.
I’m staking a 1pt win bet on Beatu and I’m taking the 7/2 BOG on offer from SkyBet (this is also available at BetVictor), but as always the advice is to…