Stat of the Day, 18th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2013

Beatu was outstanding yesterday and defied a big drift in the market to surge home and win by a good six lengths easing down! He hit the front with a couple of furlongs to and within a furlong had pu the race pretty much to bet. AP drove him on and ran the chasing favourite into the ground before easing our mount down.

We’d advised a 7/2 bet and I thought that was good value. The market, however, disagreed and he drifted out to an SP of 6/1 (Betfair SP paid a massive 9.57!). Thank heavens for BOG!

Back to the All-Weather now for a Class 2 Handicap over 11 furlongs, postponed from last Wednesday, the…

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6.20 Kempton:

It’s the same race I put up last week and I’m sticking with the same selection! Some of the stats (if not all!) will have changed though.

Marco Botti’s horses are in good form at present with 5 winners and 3 placers from 12 runners in the last fortnight, but followers of his methods will have come to expect this, as he generally does well in December.

He has a 11/35 record in handicap contests in the month of December with horses that we’d consider for SotD ie odds of a minimum 7/4 and above, but with a 12/1 cap. The 31.43% strike rate has produced 60.5pts profit to level stakes, a remarkable return of 173% above stakes invested, and he’s already 2 from 5 this month, including today’s selection Halfsin, who was a 10/1 winner over course and distance here a fortnight ago.

Halfsin was by no means Marco’s first winner at Kempton this year, in fact he’s had a great 2013 in handicap contests here, winning 13 of the 39 he’s been represented in, a strike rate of 33.33% responsible for returning 32.7pts or 84% profit.

So, we know the yard’s horses go well here and that they tend to fire in December and also that Halfsin was a course and distance winner last time out, but what else do we know about this horse?

He has taken quite well to the A/W surface here, having also finished third over C&D on his only other completed run at Kempton and he also has a decent record on the flat, with 4 wins and 2 places from 14. Today will be his twentieth trip to a track and he’s still in that rare category of horses who have been profitable to back blindly over a reasonably large number of runs: 5.5pts at SP from 19 races = 28.95% ROI.

He’s up 6lbs for that latest victory, but they way he was still pulling clear at the end of a race he’d dominated from start to finish suggests he’ll be able to shoulder the extra burden, but the rise has been accounted for in his 9/1 price today. If he’s allowed to dictate affairs again and get another easy lead, the rest of the pack could very well struggle to get past him.

He’ll be aided and abetted by the in-form Martin Harley today and the jockey is absolutely flying at present. In the last fortnight alone, from the 46 horses he has ridden: 14 have been returned as winners (30.4% SR for 53pts profit at SP!) and a total of 21 have made the frame for a place strike rate of 45.7%. Martin has also won on four of his last eight rides here at Kempton, including a 2 from 3 return on his last visit six days ago.

I’ve a sneaking suspicion that Halfsin might be slightly overpriced here, but I’m going to play a cautious safety-first approach here with a 0.5pt E/W bet on Halfsin at 9/1 BOG with Hills. You should of course, do your own research and…

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