Double Dutch, 18th December 2013
It was another of those frustrating “1 from 2” days yesterday and we normally love to see horses winning at 100/1, just to upset the natural balance of things from time to time, but not when we’ve backed against them!
Things kicked off nicely as Frost Fire was yet another USA winner at Southwell at 11/4 with our second choice Ivy Port next in line, almost two lengths behind. There was a nice little £8.80 Exacta to sweeten the deal too, as we switched our focus to Fakenham…
…where we got stung by Miss Biscotti a pillar to post 100/1 winner! Both our selections has been well backed (5/4 jt favs), but the best we could manage was 3rd and 4th, 3.75 and 6.25 lengths off the pace respectively.
Yesterday’s results were as follows:
Frost Fire: won at 11/4
Ivy Port: 2nd at 5/2
The exacta paid £8.80 here.
Great Oak: 3rd of 6
Java Rose: 4th of 6
Results to date:
87 winning selections from 314 = 27.71%
26 winning doubles in 85 days = 30.59%
P/L : +8.97pts (+5.34% ROI)
We’ve given some profit back this week, so a return to winning ways would be welcome from these:
Where King Massini looks well poised to defy a 6lb penalty to record a third win in four outings: his only defeat in the last three was when he went down by a head here at Ludlow a fortnight over an inadequate trip a half-mile shorter than today. Either side of that run, he was victorious over course and distance here 23 days ago on similarly Good to Soft ground to today and he won over today’s trip at Cheltenham five days ago.
He beat some decent sorts last Friday and provided that run hasn’t taken too much from him, any kind of repeat of that performance should be more than enough to take this at a generally available 9/4 price. We might get more rain as the day progresses, but he has gone well on softer ground than this in the past.
Should this effort prove a step too far, then I’d have Big News as my Plan B horse. He had travelled strongly throughout his last race (seasonal reappearance) before falling late on. He has a win and a place from 4 efforts on soft ground (which is probably what we’ll end up with here!) and his record over today’s trip reads 126, including a soft ground course and distance win back in February.
I like the look of Big News today, so much so that I had a nibble at him at 7/1 E/W last night and he now goes into my doubles this morning at 5/1 after attracting overnight support.
Honey of a Kitten is likely to be sent off a fairly warm favourite and currently trades at 2/1 generally. He has won 6 times (from 30 attempts = 20% SR) this year already and backing him to a £10 stake every race would have netted you £106.30 profit, a more than satisfactory 35% return on your money. He has won three times at this track, including twice from four races over course and distance (1713 finishes).
He’s very consistent indeed, just two finishes outside the first three home in his last 14 efforts on A/W surfaces (33131661123122) and easily brings the best form to the table here. I’d be very surprised if he didn’t win today and totally shocked if he doesn’t place.
Tartan Gigha is the most likely challenger and rates as biggest danger in my eyes. Bare form might not suggest he’s up to much, but his 6th place at Kempton last time is better than it looks on paper. He was only beaten by three lengths that day at 20/1 and was only a length and a half behind the runner-up in a blanket finish for third place three weeks ago. That represented his best run for a while and it looks like he’s coming back to some form.
He takes a drop in class today, which makes any kind of repeat performance too good for the majority of these here today and he gets to run off the same mark of 70 today, some 8lbs lower than his last winning mark and this is for a horse that has Class 2 victories off 100 to his name! At 8yrs of age, he’s clearly not the force of old, but there’s still enough there to be competitive at this level and he looks a decent backup at 3/1
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
King Massini / Honey of a Kitten @ 25/3 (Stan James : 9/4 & 15/8)
King Massini / Tartan Gigha @ 11/1 (Betfred, Totesport : 2/1 & 3/1)
Big News / Honey of a Kitten @ 17/1 (Seanie Mac, PP and/or Boylesports : 5/1 & 2/1)
Big News / Tartan Gigha @ 43/2 (Boylesports, Seanie Mac & PP : 5/1 & 11/4)