Stat of the Day, 19th December 2013
Halfsin made a gutsy effort to control the race from the front on Wednesday evening, but finally relinquished the lead with a couple of furlongs to go and the receded through the field, I’m afraid.
The end result was that it was a 10th place (of 12) finish the best part of 16 lengths behind the eventual winner I’m Fraam Govan, who was suggested by one of our readers (Jack Benton) as a likely winner.
More all-weather action for today’s selection, as we tackle the…
I’ve already mentioned that there are a few profitable microsystems involving USA bred horses at Southwell. Some specify the age of the horse, some specify the distance of the race or the sex of the horse etc etc.
This one is really simple and is profitable at all odds!
Quite simply, back ALL horses with the USA suffix at Southwell provided they haven’t already raced here more than twice. Once they race here more often, the market catches on and the value is eroded from the bet.
Every since 2003, this has been profitable at all odds and it’s a massive sample size: 311 winners from 1814 races = a 17.14% strike rate and level stakes profits of 664.93pts, a return above stakes of some 36.7%. Not bad at all for a “bet and forget” service.
We can, of course, filter it down to suit, but the only filters I would check personally with something like this would be recent form, odds of selection (in case a few big winners are skewing the figures) and whether or not it was a handicap race.
You could also check the class of race, I suppose. Today’s race is a Class 6 handicap by the way!
So, here goes:
2010 to 2013: 126/555 = 22.7% SR for +328.86pts : ROI of 59.25%
Max odds 6/1: 200/703 = 28.45% SR for +115.24pts : ROI of 16.39%
Class 6 races: 121/661 = 18.31% SR for 443.22pts : ROI of 67.05%
Handicap races: 190/1089 = 17.45% for 491.13pts : ROI of 45.01%
All of which brings us to today’s conditions, a Class 6 handicap with a horse priced at 6/1 or under and the figures since 2010 are 46 winners from 148 races (31.08% SR) producing level stakes profits of 51.44pts, or 34.76% of stakes.
The only horse fitting the criteria today is Yasir, who come here attempting to score back to back victories after winning here six days ago. He somewhat ground out a narrow neck victory over a fellow USA horse last time out, but shaped as though he wanted to go further than the mile and a half on offer. Not only that, it should be noted that the third placed horse was a further six lengths back and the runner-up had never run as good a race.
Yasir is up in trip today and has a 6lb penalty to contend with, but I still feel he’s running at a mark (69 today) way below his capabilities. He has, in the past, won off 79, so there’s still some room for manoeuvre if he’s at the top of his game.
Hayley Turner was on board this horse for the first time last time out and she’s back in the saddle today and she’ll no doubt be keen to double her tally on this one. She’s been riding really well since her comeback and I think she’s a great chance here.
The positives around winning last time out are tempered by the weight penalty and the step up in trip, which means we’re looking to get a similar price about this one to the odds he was sent off at last time out and to this end, I’ve placed a 1pt win bet on Yasir at 11/4 BOG with Bet365. A couple of other firms are at the same price, so it could prove beneficial to…